Final polls, models and markets see a "blue tsunami"

The threat of a blue tsunami is bearing down on President Trump's Washington, with virtually every major indicator forecasting a Democratic rout in Tuesday's elections. Why it matters: Expectations for the midterms have soared so high that some Democrats fear disappointment is inevitable, particularly if the party falls short of winning the Senate — a prize that seemed beyond reach just months ago. By the numbers: Five key metrics help distill the extraordinary consensus taking shape on the eve of the midterms. 🔮 95% and 80%: The probability of Democrats winning the House and Senate, respectively, according to election forecaster Nate Silver , whose model projects an average gain of 25 House seats. Silver says Democrats could now withstand a modest polling error and still capture the Senate — a remarkable cushion given the GOP's history of outperforming polls in the Trump era. 🗺️ 7 for 7: Democrats lead in every Senate battleground state surveyed in the final New York Times/Siena polls , including by 11 points in Michigan and seven in Texas. Trump carried six of those seven states in 2024, though five of the Democratic leads — Maine (+6), Kansas (+5), Ohio (+5), Alaska (+2) and Iowa (+1) — remain within the polls' margins of error. 🏛️ 240: The number of House seats Democrats could win under the upper end of Cook Political Report's forecast — potentially their largest majority since the first year of Barack Obama's presidency. Reaching that mark would require Democrats to sweep all 18 toss-up races. Cook already favors them in 222 districts, four more than needed for a majority. 🎲 73%: The probability of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, according to Kalshi . After correctly favoring Trump in 2024, prediction markets have become a closely watched barometer of political expectations. Nearly $100 million in contracts have traded on Kalshi's congressional control market alone. 📊 +14: Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot in the final poll f