What's on the line for health care in the midterms

Voters are about to decide whether public backlash against the health care industry translates into meaningful policy shifts. Why it matters: Health care has never been more expensive, and it's not going to get any cheaper without significant intervention. The big picture: It's hard to see Democrats not making health care affordability a top priority in the next Congress, regardless of whether they win only a narrow majority in the House or sweep both chambers in a blowout. But the party isn't aligned on an agenda, and a strong showing by progressives could drag things leftward. Reality check: Any Democratic victory — no matter the size — will be tempered by the realities of split government, with President Trump still in office for the next two years. Larger Democratic majorities may bring greater leverage in negotiations over spending packages or raising the debt limit. And the boldest changes will probably be reserved for the campaign trail, as 2028 presidential contenders begin to vie for the party's nomination. Here's what we're watching: Medicare for All vs. moderates: What happens in Michigan's Senate race — and Maine's, to some extent — will almost certainly shape how much sway progressives have in the next two years. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has made Medicare for All central to his campaign, unabashedly supporting the idea in a race that could determine which party has control of the Senate next year. The same is true of Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race, though Jackson has a lower national profile than El-Sayed. But Medicare for All supporters looking for a vote on the measure face an uphill battle : Despite the policy's growing popularity among the public, moderates unwilling to abolish private insurance will make up a sizable portion of any Democratic majority. The doctors-turned-politicians: Doctors are on the ballot in key races this year, and the question is how much public trust translates into votes. El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who went to