Why Pete Hegseth could fall through "thin ice"

It's a de facto motto in the Trump White House: "Somebody's gotta take the fall." Lately, that person looks like Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. Why it matters: From the unpopular war in Iran to his bad bipartisan relations with members of Congress, Hegseth's record has made him the most vulnerable member of Trump's Cabinet after Tuesday night's midterm shellacking. "Hegseth is definitely on thin ice," a Trump adviser told Axios. "It doesn't mean the president forces him out. But there are complications." Driving the news: As early as next week, the House could impeach Hegseth for allegedly defying Congress and illegally continuing the U.S. war in Iran. The measure is sponsored by Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a vociferous critic of Israel and foreign wars. Zoom in: Iran is at the center of both Hegseth's possible impeachment and Republicans' midterm collapse. Many voters oppose the war and its byproduct: higher gas prices that spiked after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Before Trump attacked Iran on Feb. 28, Hegseth was the most gung-ho about the conflict, and he gave the rosiest projections about how quickly and easily it would be resolved, according to sources familiar with the discussions. By August, a senior administration official said, U.S. Central Command was reportedly soliciting new approaches to pressure Iran, suggesting that military leaders were still reassessing how to achieve strategic results. CentCom was also asking: "At what point did Hegseth recognize that our original strategy wasn't going to produce the outcome he expected and pitched?" Trump stood by Hegseth on Wednesday, telling reporters that the secretary is "doing a very good job." Between the lines: Trump has been known to praise an embattled Cabinet secretary, only to seek their ouster shortly thereafter. With Hegseth, four factors are weighing on Trump: 1. The impeachment threat. Democrats already have tried to impeach Hegseth, and with their new House majority in January, those effo