Exit polls show young voters swinging back to Democrats after Trump's 2024 gains

Young voters swung so hard toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterms that it raises new doubts about whether Republicans can build a lasting coalition among Americans under 30. Why it matters: Trump's success with Gen Z voters, especially young men , fueled talk of a generational shift toward Republicans. Tuesday's results tell a different story. By the numbers: An estimated 66% of voters ages 18–29 backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE , which analyzed preliminary data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project. That's a 35-point Democratic advantage, compared with 14 points in the 2024 national House exit poll , when young voters favored Democrats 56%–42%. Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% in 2024 to 59% in 2026. Among young women, it climbed from 61% to 70%, according to 2024 exit polling by Edison Research and CIRCLE's updated 2026 analysis of NORC data. Young white voters favored Democrats 63%–34% in the SSRS survey, after splitting 50%–48% in 2024. State of play: Polls flashed warning signs for Republicans in the final weeks before Election Day. An October Harvard Youth Poll found voters ages 18–29 who said they would definitely vote favored Democrats 63%–26%. Just 9% of young Americans said the country was headed in the right direction. Zoom in: Democrats drew overwhelming support from young voters in major statewide races, according to preliminary SSRS polling. In Texas, 76% of voters under 30 supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, while 73% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, according to CIRCLE's state analysis . In Georgia, 70% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. More than 60% favored Democratic candidates for Senate and governor in Ohio. In Iowa, where young voters backed Trump in 2024, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson lost significant ground with the group, according to AP Voter Poll