Why Florida Republicans are "white-knuckled" about Tuesday

Florida Republicans aren't panicking about sluggish turnout for the midterms , but in the words of one GOP elder: "We're white-knuckled." Why it matters: Florida once looked like a much safer Republican bet for the midterms. Losing any statewide race would stun and embarrass its elite Republican residents, starting with President Trump . "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fretted last week. The biggest GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds' campaign for governor, though most polls show him narrowly leading Democrat David Jolly. Donalds has raised $176 million; Jolly just $28 million. Zoom in : The GOP's jitters are rooted in early turnout data. Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by just 2.8 percentage points as of Saturday afternoon. That's much lower than in the past two general elections — and it's despite a much-bigger Republican registration advantage over Democrats: 11 points. Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary. In those 17 counties, GOP turnout is 3.2 points below 2022, compared with 1.1 points below in counties that Donalds won, University of Florida political scientist Michael McDonald found. Between the lines: Republican turnout is made up of more habitual voters, while Democrats and independents are banking ballots from people who don't always show up. That could benefit Jolly if polls underestimate those voters. Democrats already have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans. Nearly every poll shows independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage. About two-thirds of Florida voters typically cast ballots before Election Day, making the early and absentee margins critica