Politics

The most-aired ad in the closing stretch of Mississippi's Senate race features a Jeffrey Epstein survivor attacking GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for voting against releasing files related to the convicted human trafficker. Why it matters: In the past week, Hyde-Smith has been outgunned on the airwaves. AdImpact data shows that only one of the eight most-aired spots portrays her positively. Five of the ads either positively portray her Democratic challenger, Scott Colom , or attack Hyde-Smith for her Senate record, largely painting her as an out-of-touch senator who cares more about her rich donors. The other two ads are for down-ballot races. Zoom out: The Epstein survivor ad has aired more than 1,200 times over the last week, costing the left-leaning New Deal for All super PAC over $329K, per AdImpact. In the ad, Jena-Lisa Jones condemns Hyde-Smith for her vote on the Epstein files and urges Mississippians to vote against her to protect their children. That vote, which passed 51-49 last year, indefinitely postponed an amendment that would have required the full release of the Epstein files by then-Attorney General Pam Bondi. "I do want transparency, and I support releasing information that can legally be released while protecting Epstein's victims. But a procedural vote on one amendment is not the same thing as saying the Epstein files should remain secret," Hyde-Smith said in a statement to the Mississippi Free Press. Hyde-Smith's campaign cut its own attack against Colom, calling him the "transgender defender" and naming him the "most radical Senate candidate of our lifetime." The ad played over 2,800 times across Mississippi and Memphis, Tenn., television markets in the 30 days since its Sept. 10 debut, costing the senator's campaign over $854K, per AdImpact. Hyde-Smith's campaign appears to have pulled back on the ad, spending less than $150,000 to air it between Oct. 19 and Oct. 26. The bottom line: Hyde-Smith is still expected to win, but the race is far tighter

Democrats will happily tell you how good they feel about retaking the House on Tuesday — just as soon as they stop hyperventilating into a paper bag. Why it matters: They've been burned too many times on Election Day to feel anything more than "nauseously optimistic," as one House Democrat put it to Axios. The polls point to a decisive Democratic victory on Nov. 3, yet fears of a massive polling error or some other eleventh-hour disaster are giving party members sleepless nights. "One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was 'nauseously optimistic,'" Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) told Axios. "That may capture a lot of people's last-minute jitters." A House Democrat who has spoken to leadership told Axios: "They feel optimistic. You know, guarded. Guarded optimism. Where we're going to end up, you never know." State of play: Democrats are targeting dozens of Republican-held seats they think could flip, some of which President Trump carried by 10, 15, even 20 percentage points in 2024. Democrats' House Majority PAC, for instance, went on the air Wednesday in retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's (R-N.Y.) district, which Trump won by 21 points. They also began spending against Rep. Mike Flood (R-Neb.), who won his last reelection with 60% of the vote. HMP is so bullish it has moved money out of the races to replace retiring Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.), Chuck Edwards (R-N.C.) and Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), which they believe Democrats are on track to win handily. "I am cautiously optimistic we win between 20-25 seats," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios. Democrats' landslide scenario puts them closer to 40 or 50 pickups, which would be a historic night for the party. Yes, but: Mid-decade redistricting in Republican-controlled Southern states is all but certain to cut into those gains. The GOP is expected to easily flip redrawn seats in Tennessee and Louisiana where the incumbent Democrats chose to retire rather than face uphill reelection battles. Democratic lead

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