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A working-class Alaskan Native takes on a ‘multimillionaire’ Republican for seat in Congress

Independent candidate Bill Hill is threatening to unseat Trump ally Nick Begich with a message of affordability As Republicans fight to maintain their narrow majority in Congress , they face a unique challenge in Alaska – not from a Democrat, but from an independent commercial fisher and first-time candidate running to flip the state’s lone House seat. Bill Hill, who is an Alaska Native and has worked in education and construction, has positioned himself as a working-class candidate who will fight to make life more affordable for people like himself and his family. Continue reading...

The Guardian · Oct 30
Key Democrat warns permitting bill could create "gold rush for gas"

A bipartisan deal to speed energy development is facing concerns it could favor natural gas over renewables because of President Trump's opposition to wind and solar. Why it matters: The worries from Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) could complicate efforts to pass the bill before year's end, highlighting divisions even among Democrats who have long supported permitting reform. Driving the news: Casten, a former energy executive and leading Democratic voice on permitting reform, said he isn't yet backing the bill and is negotiating changes with Senate Democrats to prevent it from disproportionately benefiting natural gas. "My test for the bill is: I talk to energy developers, and ask, 'What would you build in response to this bill?' And the answer I get overwhelmingly is a lot of gas," Casten told Axios on stage at a University of Chicago event Wednesday. "I think you have to look at the bill in the context of everything else that the Trump administration has done." The big picture: The AI boom is fueling demand for electricity, prompting a rush to build natural gas power plants alongside renewable energy projects. The permitting deal could help determine which technologies benefit most from that expansion. Catch up quick: The bill, sponsored by two Republicans and two Democrats who lead the Senate's energy and environment committees, would speed construction of power lines and other energy infrastructure. An initial procedural vote is scheduled for Nov. 9, shortly after the midterm elections, setting up a potential push to pass the legislation before the new Congress takes office. Threat level: The bill aims to prevent political favoritism in energy permitting, but Casten worries one provision could have the opposite effect. It would allow developers to challenge discriminatory permitting decisions in part by comparing them with decisions made over the previous five years. Casten argues that as Trump's second term becomes part of that historical benchmark, the administrat

Axios · Oct 30
Exclusive: How the permitting bill could change the energy landscape

Data: Resources for the Future; Note: Central RFF scenario ; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios The Senate permitting plan would cut emissions from power plants in the near term and help keep electricity prices down, a new analysis finds. Why it matters: The study from scholars at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank, offers some of the most detailed independent modeling yet of the bill 's effects. It will help inform lobbying and advocacy around the bill ahead of a test vote looming on Nov. 9. Driving the news: The analysis models how the bill would affect the power sector compared with current law and policies. Among the findings from its central scenario: It would drive "robust" transmission expansion ( see above ), enabling "use of additional clean energy and existing resources of all types." Overall electricity system costs are an estimated 3.5% to 7% lower each year through 2041 compared to a no-bill baseline, saving over $350 billion total through 2050 in present-value terms. That should translate into lower electricity bills for people, co-author Kevin Rennert tells Axios, though the study does not directly model retail prices. The bill would boost the build-out of renewables, partly enabled by expansion of transmission, with added clean energy displacing fossil fuels even though additions of gas-fired capacity still occur. CO2 from the power sector would initially drop as more coal is edged aside, and then climb over time — but remain below levels projected without the bill. By the numbers: In 2028, there's roughly 60 gigawatts more clean energy capacity on the grid in the study's central outlook compared to a baseline of current law and policy. Data: Resources for the Future; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios The intrigue: The RFF analysis shows how it sees the bill initially pushing power plant emissions downward. Even that eventual upward trend is hardly guaranteed. This kind of study is by definition packed with assumptions and variables that the authors acknowl

Axios · Oct 29
The left's 2027 wishlist

House progressives are planning to use their growing power to force votes next year on their most sweeping and divisive policies, including Medicare for All, abolishing ICE and cutting aid to Israel. Why it matters: The ultimate goal is to get these policies on the front burner for a Democratic president in 2029, even if that means forcing House Democrats into tough decisions. Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) told Axios the left wants mark-ups and votes on bills such as Medicare for All "so that we can prepare for when we have the trifecta and so that we can really build the support we need." "Forcing the vote is important so we can see where everyone is at, I think that's really key for 2028 and 2029," said Mai Vang, a progressive House candidate in California. The big picture: Here is what progressives most want to see go to a House vote in 2027, according to lawmakers, candidates and operatives who spoke to Axios: 1) Medicare for All The Medicare for All Act introduced by Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) has 118 co-sponsors — more than half the House Democratic caucus. The left wants to force the issue onto the floor and make their Democratic colleagues reckon with the policy's popularity in public opinion polls . Ultimately, they aim to ensure support for Medicare for All is a must-have for any 2028 presidential candidate to win the primary. "Years ago I negotiated with [former House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi to get the hearings , but we have not had a markup," Jayapal, a former Progressive Caucus chair, said in an interview with Axios. Jayapal pointed to the bill she and Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) unveiled last week, which would lower the Medicare age from 65 to 50, as a potential compromise measure that could get caucus-wide support next year. Yes, but: A Democratic wave could bring in a bloc of members from red-leaning districts who could be sensitive to being tagged as wanting to end private insurance. Jayapal told Axios there's an "opening we've never seen before" with

Axios · Oct 29
Private equity's political problem

If Democrats gain full control of Congress next week, as many polls and prediction markets suggest they will, private equity could once again find itself in the political crosshairs. The big picture: Private equity has become a rhetorical punching bag for a number of Democratic House and Senate candidates, including in debates and on the stump, as an affordability bête noire. Most of this has related to housing, both single-family and mobile homes, but also has extended to health care. What they're saying: "It's no doubt that housing is way out of control and a big part of that is because private equity has come into Maine," said Troy Jackson in an Oct. 6 debate with Sen. Susan Collins. "I do think we have to go after private equity, make it so that they can't buy these things and charge outrageous prices." Chris Pappas, running for an open Senate seat in New Hampshire, said during a campaign stop at a mobile home community: "We need to... address the housing crisis that we're seeing, including addressing the corporate private equity influence that we're seeing in housing that's making it less affordable and is causing a lot of consternation here at this park." Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) decried PE ownership of residential care facilities during a public event, saying: "Those people know nothing about health care." State of play: Congress passed a bipartisan bill this past summer to restrict PE ownership of single-family homes, with the Treasury Department last week issuing related regulations . The legislation became law despite not being signed by President Trump, who supported it but was in a snit over the Senate not passing his voter identification bill. Zoom in: A Democratic sweep would likely result in Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) taking the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee gavel, which means she'd go from writing strongly worded letters to holding hearings and guiding legislation. "Americans are sick and tired of private equity's playbook of ro

Axios · Oct 28
Key Senate Democrats set high bar for permitting bill support

Four Senate Democrats are pressing Trump officials to begin restoring billions of dollars in clean energy grants before a key vote on the permitting deal. Why it matters: The path for the bipartisan bill in the lame duck session just got steeper. The big picture: Before the first vote, the senators — Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), Ron Wyden (Ore.), Ed Markey (Mass.), and Jeff Merkley (Ore.) — want Trump aides to tell the Energy Department to: Begin reinstating grants terminated in October 2025 that have not already been restored with a clear timeline for completion, and allow recipients to draw on the funds under the original terms. Pledge in writing not to cancel grants based on the political hue of a state or its officials. Driving the news: Their new letter to the bill's authors stops shy of an ultimatum, but says it would be "compelling" if these steps occurred. It shows deep misgivings about the bill, arguing it could provide new tools for Trump to favor fossil fuels. "[T]he promise of BAAJA will only succeed if President Trump takes care that it is faithfully executed. The Trump administration's record gives us no basis to assume that he will," the letter states, calling the bill by its acronym. Catch up quick: The letter recounts the scuttling of Biden-era grants, and White House budget chief Russ Vought listing states that did not vote for President Trump in 2024. The Energy Department has acknowledged , in a court filing , that selections of grants for termination in October 2025 were based on politics. Restoring "unlawfully terminated DOE clean energy awards would be a small but important first step" toward fairness in permitting, it states. Friction point: Co-authors Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) want to see more federal approvals of stalled renewables projects. They've called some recent administration moves a step in the right direction. But the new letter shows that other lawmakers have separate asks of the administration. Alr

Axios · Oct 27
Airlines' new normal: Higher fares, fewer flights

That wince you just made while researching travel options? Get used to it. Why it matters: Soaring jet fuel prices are accelerating changes across the airline industry, seen in higher fares, premium-heavy cabins and fewer flight options for travelers. Airfares rose 22% year over year in September, marking a 10th straight monthly increase in the government's airfare price index , which hit an all-time high. State of play: All the major airlines are feeling the pain: American Airlines reported Thursday that its fuel bill jumped nearly 70% in the third quarter from a year ago, adding $1.9 billion in costs and undercutting its revenue growth. Southwest and United Airlines both slashed their profit forecasts this week on higher fuel costs. And Delta Air Lines expects its fuel bill this year to come in $6 billion above last year's. The impact: To protect their bottom lines, airlines are raising fares and turning to more premium seats to squeeze more revenue out of their flights. At Southwest, the average passenger fare rose 26.9% to $231.69 in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier — and that doesn't include fees. Delta's premium seating revenue jumped 18% in the third quarter, even though the number of premium seats rose only 6%. What they're saying: The airlines have few options to make up for extra fuel costs other than fare increases, said Scott Keyes, founder of flight-deal service Going.com. "None of them are hedging fuel the way they used to, in large part because they had a pretty terrible experience with it," Keyes said in an interview. The big picture: Airline executives, however, see these changes — many of which were already underway — as a necessary new normal. This year's fuel spike has only "accelerated" change, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the company's earnings call on Oct. 9. "Regardless of the next move in fuel prices, the forces reshaping the U.S. airline industry will continue with many carriers struggling to earn their cost of capital well b

Axios · Oct 22
Permitting deal draws lobbying blitz as hurdles mount

The fragile Senate permitting deal is a major priority across the energy industry, per newly filed lobbying disclosures. Why it matters: The filings reveal behind-the-scenes efforts by powerful interests and companies representing oil and gas, mining, renewables, environmentalists and plenty in between to shape the legislation. The big picture: The bill title (Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act), its acronym (BAAJA) and its bill number appear throughout third-quarter lobbying disclosures. The bill was introduced Sept. 30, the last day of the third quarter. The disclosures, due Oct. 20, offer a window into efforts to influence the legislation during its drafting and negotiations. The lobbying extends beyond groups that specifically named the bill in their filings. Many others with a stake in the bill — like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers — list permitting legislation in other ways. Driving the news: Here's just a small subset of the parties in the arena. Industry groups like the American Petroleum Institute, the Edison Electric Institute, the American Forest & Paper Association, the National Mining Association, and the Data Center Coalition. Green groups including Earthjustice, the Nature Conservancy, and Defenders of Wildlife. Low-carbon power trade groups such as the Solar Energy Industries Association. State of play: The lobbying goes far beyond trade associations, with many individual companies also involved. They range from Chevron and BP to power giants like Duke Energy and Southern Company to geothermal startup Fervo. Industrial and equipment heavyweights like Caterpillar, Schneider Electric and Cummins are there, too. Zoom in: The disclosures also offer clues about which provisions attracted lobbying attention. For example: The National Mining Association identified BAAJA provisions that would change Clean Water Act permitting, including state water quality reviews and limits on lawsuits challenging perm

Axios · Oct 22
Scoop: Dems quietly guide super PACs to boost spoiler House candidates

House Democrats' campaign arm is instructing allied super PACs to promote minor candidates in several key House races, Axios has learned. Why it matters: This allows Democrats to steer outside groups toward siphoning votes from Republicans without violating laws against direct coordination. An Axios review of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "redboxes" — publicly available webpages laying out what PACs should say in ads and which voters to target — found references to minor candidates in five races. The DCCC included language on four of those pages promoting a third-party or independent candidate with language touting their conservative, pro-gun or anti-government bona fides. "Registered Republicans under the age of 55 need to see ads," the redbox for Colorado's 5th District says, "showing that ... Christopher Mitchell, a libertarian, is the true conservative running for Congress." The page for Virginia's 2nd District says white, college-educated men should see that independent J. Matt Baker is "a staunch supporter of the 2nd amendment" who will "defend our constitution." In Virginia's 5th District , the DCCC wants the same group of voters to know that independent Cooke Harvey "will fight for Virginia's farmers against big government." Republican women in Nevada's 2nd District should be informed that American Independent Party candidate Lynn Chapman "has spent decades fighting for conservative values," the DCCC says. Zoom in: In several cases, the redboxes urge super PACs to steer Democratic and left-leaning voters away from minor candidates who could siphon votes from the DCCC's recruit. The redbox for Alaska's at-large district — where Democrats are backing independent Bill Hill — says voters need to know Eric Hafner is a "fake Democrat" despite being listed on the ballot as one, noting he is an inmate in New York with no clear ties to Alaska . The page for Virginia's 2nd District urges PACs to ding the progressive credentials of another independe

Axios · Oct 21