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Election cheat sheet: These early races could tell us where the midterms are headed

You won't need to stay up all night Tuesday to spot a big Democratic wave in the 2026 midterm elections . But it could take days — or even weeks — to know whether Republicans have survived a smaller one and held on to the House or Senate. Why it matters: A handful of early results in key states and congressional districts will tell us whether Democrats are headed for a landslide or disappointment. What we're watching: Florida, Florida, Florida. Most polls close at 7pm ET, and the state counts quickly — ready for release when the Panhandle finally calls it a night an hour later. At 8:01pm , refresh your browser and watch FL-14. The great mid-cycle redistricting wars transformed this Tampa-based district from Harris +8 to Trump +11. If Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor survives, Republicans can all but kiss their majority goodbye, according to party strategists. Next up is FL-25. The country's most expensive general election race is playing out in a district that went from Harris +4 to Trump +9. If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive. While you're at it, this is a good time to check on South Carolina's Senate race, where polls close at 7pm and the state counts relatively fast. If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority. (And they'll be sweating if it's close.) "Underperformance is rarely isolated," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024. "If you see the GOP underperforming early in the East, it is likely going to continue as you move further West." At 9pm, check in on Virginia: The commonwealth's polls close at 7pm, but historically tight races often aren't called until the 9pm hour. If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night. If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night. Between the lines: VA

Axios · 14h ago
NCAA basketball 2026-27 predictions: from JuJu Watkins to Tyran Stokes, the names you’ll know by March

Can Florida’s continuity trump the transfer portal? Will JuJu Watkins pick up where she left off? And who will survive an expanded March Madness? Our writers weigh in Lots of stuff. The return of JuJu Watkins at USC after her 19-month injury layoff , the debut of Tyran Stokes at Kansas, the potential turnaround of the Big East on the men’s side, and the stacked ACC on the women’s side. Ella Brockway Continue reading...

The Guardian · Oct 30
Scoop: Trump blesses El Salvador strongman's troop surge in Haiti

El Salvador's strongman president, Nayib Bukele , is sending thousands of troops to Haiti to boost the island's push to wipe out its gang problem — and find four of his military personnel who were captured in a recent ambush. Bukele called President Trump on Tuesday to make sure he had no problem with this major military escalation, to which Haiti's government has agreed. "Do what you have to do," Trump told him, according to sources briefed on the call. Why it matters: If it works, Bukele's troop surge could stabilize Haiti, a country 700 miles from Florida that has been devastated by deadly gang violence and has lacked a president since the last one, Jovenel Moise, was assassinated five years ago. If it doesn't work, it could increase Haiti's death toll well beyond the 5,700-plus killed in gang violence this year, embarrass Bukele and mark yet another failed international effort to restore stability to the country. Haiti also may be a test case for Bukele and security contractor Erik Prince — a Trump and Bukele ally also operating in Haiti — to act as public-private proxies for U.S. muscle in the hemisphere. El Salvador announced Wednesday it was deploying as many as 2,000 troops to Haiti. That number could double or triple, sources say. "We didn't come to Haiti to make money, because no one is paying us to do it. We came to Haiti to fight against the wicked," Bukele, writing in Haitian Creole, wrote Thursday on X . Zoom in: Along with other countries, El Salvador has been part of a UN-established initiative called the Gang Suppression Force, or GSF, operating in Haiti's capital city of Port-au-Prince. On Oct. 18, four Salvadoran aviation technicians were ambushed and remain unaccounted for, according to the Miami Herald . Three days later, Bukele posted a warning on X : "I want you, the gang leaders, to understand one thing very clearly: Today's attack is nothing compared to what is coming if we do not get all four hostages back alive." "We have already finished

Axios · Oct 30
Cape Canaveral in its "boom cycle" of launches

Call it a new Apollo moment: Rocket launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida, are now outpacing those of the Cold War-era space race that first made the launch site famous. Why it matters: U.S. leaders are rushing to grow the number of rocket providers at America's busiest spaceport amid a space and arms race with China. Beijing plans to send a crew to the Moon by 2030 or sooner and is rapidly building up its satellite and rocket fleets. What they're saying: "There's nothing really comparable in the background of my career to what we're experiencing today," Space Force Col. Brian Chatman, the commander of Florida's rocket range, told Axios in an exclusive interview. Behind the scenes: The Cape is busy expanding to meet President Trump's mandate for the nation to support 1,000 annual launches by 2030. Chatman said with all the contractors on base, inspection backups and parking chaos abound. A rundown of some major projects Chatman is overseeing: SpaceX is expanding its footprint on the Cape for its Starship super heavy-lift launchpads. Newcomers Relativity Space and Stoke Space are setting up their facilities and are aiming to launch rockets for military and commercial customers sometime in late 2026 and 2027 . NASA is preparing for next year's Artemis III testing missions, and the Artemis IV voyage that aims to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028. Blue Origin is rapidly rebuilding its launch complex after its New Glenn rocket exploded in May. Jamie Draper, the Cape Canaveral Space Force Museum's director, told Axios there's been "boom and bust" cycles throughout the base's history. "We're definitely in one of those boom cycles right now," Draper said. By the numbers: Last year, Space Launch Delta 45, the military command overseeing the Cape, supported 109 orbital liftoffs from the base — the most in its history. In April, Space Launch Delta 45 oversaw five different rocket launches for unique missions, breaking a record set at the height of the U.S.-Soviet space rac

Axios · Oct 29
U.S. granting visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and family

The U.S. government is granting visas to Flávio Bolsonaro and his family following his defeat in Brazil's presidential election , a senior Trump administration official tells Axios. Why it matters: The move comes days after Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva defeated Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro , in a closely watched election. The latest: Bolsonaro has arrived in Florida after leaving Brazil despite a court order requiring him to surrender his passports, according to multiple media reports . Driving the news: Following the election , Brazil's Supreme Court ordered Bolsonaro on Monday to surrender his passports and barred him from leaving the country. The order relates to an ongoing investigation into alleged money laundering. Bolsonaro has denied any wrongdoing. Trump administration officials said they would not comment further until the Bolsonaro family is safely in the U.S. The big picture: President Trump and his administration have repeatedly backed the Bolsonaro family, with the president denouncing the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro as a " witch hunt ." Jair Bolsonaro was convicted last year by Brazil's Supreme Court of plotting a coup to overturn the 2022 election and was sentenced to 27 years in prison , though he remains under house arrest due to health problems. Trump's administration has targeted Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes , who oversaw the prosecution, with visa restrictions and, separately, sanctions that were later lifted. The Trump administration also imposed steep tariffs on Brazilian imports in 2025, escalating tensions between Washington and Brasília. Go deeper: Brazil's election ignites MAGA's midterm warnings Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information throughout.

Axios · Oct 28
Brazil's election ignites MAGA's midterm warnings

President Trump and MAGA-world influencers are echoing Brazilian presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro's claims of a rigged election after the Trump-aligned populist fell to the incumbent president in Sunday's election. The big picture: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's runoff victory has been widely seen as a counterweight to the global right's surge in Latin America. But Bolsonaro, like his father , isn't accepting defeat. What they're saying: "It looked like another rigged election, frankly," Trump told reporters Monday. He added, "Elections have to be indisputable, and it looked very bad to me." The White House did not respond to Axios' request for comment. Friction point: Bolsonaro told reporters it was "impossible to recognize the result of this election in the context of how these things have happened," according to a translation . He also vowed to ask for the results to be annulled. Brazilian Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin's two-hour extension to Sunday's voting has fueled Bolsonaro's claims. Zanin previously served as Lula's lawyer. But both Bolsonaro and Lula's camps requested more time for voters. Lula's team requested the extension because of public transit issues, while Bolsonaro sought additional time in certain states because of weather, Bloomberg reported . The extension was reportedly given as many polling stations were already wrapping up. Multiple outlets noted that the decision risked setting the stage for candidates to dispute the results, despite Brazil's voting system being widely recognized for its reliability. Zoom out: Several prominent voices in the online MAGA movement backed Bolsonaro's refusal to accept the election results, and some urged the Trump administration to act. "The math just ain't mathin'," podcaster Benny Johnson said in a Monday edition of his show where he criticized the election results. He was joined by Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier, who argued Brazil looked like "a banana republic." Former Trump

Axios · Oct 26
Scoop: U.S. intel memo warns of "advanced" Iranian plots to kill officials abroad

U.S. intelligence finds Iran has "substantially increased" its efforts to target American diplomats and officials in the Middle East and beyond, with lethal plots reaching "advanced stages," according to an Oct. 23 memo to Secretary of State Marco Rubio obtained by Axios. Why it matters: U.S. officials say the intelligence is one reason the State Department is drawing down personnel at several American embassies across the Middle East, amid mounting fears of a broader regional conflict. U.S. officials also fear that Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen could expand their attacks beyond Saudi Arabia to other countries in the region. Adding to the volatile security environment is the prospect of renewed U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran, potentially after the midterm elections. News of the memo exploded across the internet after Axios posted it last night, with media coverage worldwide . What they're saying: "We may do another little Operation Epic Fury, or [the Iranians] will agree [to a deal]," President Trump said at a rally in Florida on Friday. "If they're smart, they will just say, 'Let's get down to business,' but I doubt they will do that because perhaps they're not smart." Driving the news: In the one-page, unclassified memo obtained by Axios, Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton warned Rubio that intelligence about Iranian assassination plots needs to reach more U.S. personnel than are currently authorized to receive it. The memo does not identify specific targets, countries outside the Middle East or the nature of the plots, but says the underlying intelligence has already been shared with senior State Department officials. Clayton offered to downgrade as much of the sensitive intelligence as possible so Rubio could share it more widely with personnel potentially at risk. State of play: Earlier this week, the State Department ordered family members and nonessential personnel to leave the U.S. Embassy in Riyadh and consulates in Jeddah

Axios · Oct 24
Wall Street prepares for AI's "day after"

America's largest banks are working to prevent AI worst-case scenarios. But they're also preparing for the "day after" a catastrophe, Axios has learned. Why it matters: America's financial institutions have joined the largest AI companies in scenario-planning for disaster, a prudent but worrisome signal about the extent of the risk that major corporations see on the horizon. State of play: Banks are experiencing unvetted AI agent activity, primarily driven by customers providing login credentials to agents, which in some cases appear to have taken actions independent of user prompts, Axios reported Thursday . The activity is distinct from the rogue behavior involved in a summer attack on a startup called Hugging Face , where an AI agent swarm hacked its platform in an episode that kicked off an industry security crisis. Instead, banks fear the ripple effects and risks that extend from users allowing agents to log in to their accounts and take action, especially since agents could take steps users haven't sanctioned. Concerns about frontier AI systems, not AI agents, have led banks to invest in prevention and to plan for the worst. Zoom in: The Axios report came amid growing concerns about a burgeoning cybersecurity crisis. Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff posted "code red" on X, quoting an Anthropic security employee who said "as bad as things have gotten in the past 4 days, they are going to get a lot worse before they get better." The Anthropic employee was referring to security researchers finding major vulnerabilities in a programming language used to run millions of websites, marking one of the most consequential cybersecurity discoveries yet made with AI . The Axios report on banks, which referred to agentic AI, not frontier AI systems, sparked calls for regulation from across the political spectrum, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Mark Warner (D-Va.). Former White House AI czar David Sacks said banks should support user-di

Axios · Oct 23
Trump ordered to sit for deposition in $10 billion BBC lawsuit

A federal judge on Thursday ordered President Trump to sit for a deposition by Dec. 11 in his $10 billion defamation lawsuit against the BBC over an edit of one of his speeches that the president's lawyers say was misleading. Why it matters: The order will likely force Trump to answer questions under oath in a legal battle he started. Driving the news: Judge Enjoliqué Lett ordered Trump to appear by Dec. 11, after lawyers for the BBC argued that Trump is improperly delaying his appearance. In a filing published Wednesday, Trump's counsel said the president could appear between Jan. 11 and Jan. 22, 2027, and argued that his presidential duties prevent him from sitting for the deposition before then. They also allege the BBC is "wrong to claim that President Trump is avoiding his deposition in this action." The president was originally scheduled to appear for the deposition on Oct. 16. However, his lawyers said, that appearance was canceled because Trump had to attend to "matters that have significantly impacted the United States' national security and economy," including the wars in Iran and Ukraine and the White House Accord on Super Intelligence. The other side: BBC attorneys say the president was campaigning in Georgia on Oct. 16, as reflected in a White House press pool report that includes his travel plans. The BBC argues the president chose political activity over appearing for the original deposition date. According to Trump's daily schedule, he attended an intelligence briefing and had executive time before departing for a rally in Georgia and then attended an RNC event in Palm Beach, Florida, that evening. The White House referred Axios to Trump's personal counsel. A spokesperson for Trump's legal team told Axios in an emailed statement that the BBC "defamed President Trump by intentionally, maliciously, and deceptively doctoring his speech in a brazen attempt to interfere in the 2024 Presidential Election." The BBC's legal team did not immediately respond t

Axios · Oct 22
Canada hit back at Trump tariffs. Now the U.S. alleges possible election interference.

The U.S. Embassy in Canada accused Canadian leaders of "openly" describing plans to "influence American politics," doubling down on Ambassador Pete Hoekstra's claims of potential election interference. Why it matters: The accusation further deteriorates Washington's relationship with its northern neighbor under President Trump's costly trade war that's put political pressure on Republicans. Canada targeted its retaliatory tariffs on politically salient states and products ahead of the U.S. midterms. Driving the news: The embassy cited Canada's targeted tariffs as part of the influence accusations laid out in a Wednesday fact sheet . It cited remarks from Industry Minister Mélanie Joly, including an August press conference where she said Canada was "targeting products that will target states in the U.S." She added, "we're being wise and strategic to put political pressure." Joly has echoed that message throughout the trade tensions. The fact sheet also cited Joly's meeting with Democrats. She recently huddled with Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. What they're saying: Asked about the accusations during a news conference, Prime Minister Mark Carney said "all of our actions are in the interest of Canadian workers, Canadian families and the future of this economy." Zoom out: The fact sheet also singled out conservative Ontario Premier Doug Ford over a 2025 anti-tariff ad campaign featuring excerpts from a Ronald Reagan speech . It also cited Liberal MP Anthony Housefather's campaigning for Florida Democrat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz. The memo read, "The Canadian government brushes off concerns about potential interference in U.S. elections, even as its ministers and premiers openly describe plans to influence American politics in official documents and public appearances." Catch up quick: Hoekstra said in a recent podcast interview that American officials were "closely watching" Canada for potential election interference. Joly said last week it was "absolutely not" fair to

Axios · Oct 22