“We had a primary, right?” Dr. El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan, told reporters. “I understand that some folks are upset about that. I get it. But I’m here trying to beat Mike Rogers.”
President Donald Trump is taking time off from the in-person campaign trail for virtual rallies
Tensions have flared between Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic Senate nominee in Michigan, and his former primary rival, leaving uncertainty about their scheduled joint event on Sunday.
With control of Congress on the line, next week’s midterms amount to a referendum on Trump, who has urged voters to pretend he is on the ballot Sign up for the Breaking News US email Hello and welcome to the US politics live blog. Donald Trump is tele-rallying from Mar-a-Lago with just three days to go before the midterm elections. On Sunday, he will make appearances at rallies in Iowa in Kansas in a reversal after he initially backed out . The top federal prosecutor in Alaska confirmed on Friday the existence of a criminal and a civil investigation into an alleged scheme by Mary Peltola’s campaign and national Democrats to confuse voters in the closely watched Senate race by recruiting a spoiler candidate who shares a name with the Republican incumbent, Dan Sullivan . Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed resisted a demand from his defeated primary rival, congresswoman Haley Stevens , that he apologize for criticism of US military aid to Israel on Friday – two days before they were scheduled to campaign together in Detroit. Early voting this cycle has set a record. More than 49 million Americans have already cast ballots, either in person or by mail, the Associated Press reported. Continue reading...
Guardian readers share their concerns and disillusionment with the political climate under Trump as elections loom Millions of Americans will head to the polls on 3 November in elections that will determine control of the Republican-held House of Representatives and Senate, as well as the governorships of 36 states. The midterms come amid mounting public frustration over issues ranging from the rising cost of living and immigration to the climate crisis, artificial intelligence, big tech and the US’s overseas wars. Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to 36% , according to a New York Times/Siena poll conducted this month. Continue reading...
You won't need to stay up all night Tuesday to spot a big Democratic wave in the 2026 midterm elections . But it could take days — or even weeks — to know whether Republicans have survived a smaller one and held on to the House or Senate. Why it matters: A handful of early results in key states and congressional districts will tell us whether Democrats are headed for a landslide or disappointment. What we're watching: Florida, Florida, Florida. Most polls close at 7pm ET, and the state counts quickly — ready for release when the Panhandle finally calls it a night an hour later. At 8:01pm , refresh your browser and watch FL-14. The great mid-cycle redistricting wars transformed this Tampa-based district from Harris +8 to Trump +11. If Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor survives, Republicans can all but kiss their majority goodbye, according to party strategists. Next up is FL-25. The country's most expensive general election race is playing out in a district that went from Harris +4 to Trump +9. If Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz's race is close — or too close to call early in the night — House Republicans can keep hope alive. While you're at it, this is a good time to check on South Carolina's Senate race, where polls close at 7pm and the state counts relatively fast. If Sen. Darline Graham loses to Annie Andrews in the Trump +18 state, Senate Republicans can say goodbye to their majority. (And they'll be sweating if it's close.) "Underperformance is rarely isolated," said Jason Thielman, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee in 2024. "If you see the GOP underperforming early in the East, it is likely going to continue as you move further West." At 9pm, check in on Virginia: The commonwealth's polls close at 7pm, but historically tight races often aren't called until the 9pm hour. If Democrats flip VA-01, a Trump +5 seat, they're in for a very good night. If they flip VA-05, a Trump +12 seat, they're in for a great night. Between the lines: VA
Days away from a national verdict on Trump 2.0, we check in with nine midterm voters across the US and the political spectrum US voters will soon deliver a national verdict on the second presidency of Donald Trump . On 3 November, millions of Americans will vote in midterm elections to decide control of the House of Representatives and Senate, as well as the governorships in 36 states and state legislatures across the country. The results could have a huge impact on Trump’s final two years in office. Our reporters have interviewed nine voters across the country and the political spectrum about extremism in US politics, their confidence in the US voting system, what they hope Congress will tackle first and their views of the president’s secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth. Continue reading...
The tensions between the former Democratic primary candidates have drawn in other Michigan Democrats as the party hopes to secure a critical Senate seat.
The FBI is surging agents to Alaska as part of a criminal investigation into allegations Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign for Senate tried to secretly trick Alaska voters by recruiting a candidate with the same name as her Republican opponent. NBC News’ Steve Patterson reports.
US attorney Michael Heyman cited reports that Mary Peltola’s Senate campaign and Democrats allegedly ‘orchestrated a sprawling conspiracy’ to recruit a sham candidate Sign up for the Breaking News US email James Talarico, the Democratic nominee in Texas, attacked his Republican opponent Ken Paxton for cancelling some of his final rallies before the midterm election. “No one’s going to Ken Paxton’s rallies, so he’s canceling them and hoping Elon Musk will buy his seat for him,” Talarico wrote, referencing the donations Paxton has received from the world’s richest man. Continue reading...
Peltola told supporters on Thursday that she “knew nothing" about decoy Senate candidates recruited to run.
Polls show the sister of the late Senator Lindsey Graham in a virtual tie with her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews. An upset was unthinkable just a few months ago.
There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 35 in the Senate and 39 governorships up for grabs in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Jonathan Freedland is joined by Carrie Dann, of the Cook Political Report, to run through some of the races to watch before the final weekend of campaigning Continue reading...
A bipartisan deal to speed energy development is facing concerns it could favor natural gas over renewables because of President Trump's opposition to wind and solar. Why it matters: The worries from Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) could complicate efforts to pass the bill before year's end, highlighting divisions even among Democrats who have long supported permitting reform. Driving the news: Casten, a former energy executive and leading Democratic voice on permitting reform, said he isn't yet backing the bill and is negotiating changes with Senate Democrats to prevent it from disproportionately benefiting natural gas. "My test for the bill is: I talk to energy developers, and ask, 'What would you build in response to this bill?' And the answer I get overwhelmingly is a lot of gas," Casten told Axios on stage at a University of Chicago event Wednesday. "I think you have to look at the bill in the context of everything else that the Trump administration has done." The big picture: The AI boom is fueling demand for electricity, prompting a rush to build natural gas power plants alongside renewable energy projects. The permitting deal could help determine which technologies benefit most from that expansion. Catch up quick: The bill, sponsored by two Republicans and two Democrats who lead the Senate's energy and environment committees, would speed construction of power lines and other energy infrastructure. An initial procedural vote is scheduled for Nov. 9, shortly after the midterm elections, setting up a potential push to pass the legislation before the new Congress takes office. Threat level: The bill aims to prevent political favoritism in energy permitting, but Casten worries one provision could have the opposite effect. It would allow developers to challenge discriminatory permitting decisions in part by comparing them with decisions made over the previous five years. Casten argues that as Trump's second term becomes part of that historical benchmark, the administrat
Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan, who was defeated by Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in August’s Democratic Senate primary, said she would appear with the candidate this weekend.
Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R) suggested Thursday the state could withhold certification of the U.S. Senate election results if Democrat Mary Peltola wins. Why it matters: Withholding certification could complicate Peltola's path to the Senate, as Republicans investigate allegations that Democrats recruited a candidate with the same name as GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan . Driving the news: Asked during an interview with NewsNation whether he would certify the election if Peltola wins while the matter remains under investigation, Dunleavy stopped short of committing to do so. "We're going to investigate it. We're going to follow the law," Dunleavy said, adding that any findings of illegal conduct "may in fact impact whether somebody is seated in the U.S. Senate." He said the matter would involve discussions with Senate leadership and that officials would need more information before determining "whether we send something down or not." Pressed on why he had not given an unequivocal yes, Dunleavy said: "We're going to ensure that we aren't going to send a scam to Washington." For the record: Peltola has denied any involvement in the alleged scheme. What they're saying: "Dunleavy's threat to overrule the will of Alaskan voters exemplifies what Alaskans hate about partisan politics and shows why he's the least popular governor in the country," a spokesperson for the "Alaskans for Mary" campaign said in an emailed statement Thursday night. "Mary won't be intimidated by Dunleavy, Sullivan, or any of their DC allies who are trying to steal this election from Alaskans before votes are counted — and she's going to win this race by focusing on solutions to Sullivan's price hiking policies and putting Alaska first." The big picture: House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer (R-Ky.) is investigating allegations that Democratic operatives recruited another candidate named Dan Sullivan to draw votes away from the Republican incumbent. President Trump accused Democrats and Peltola's
As a conflict over candidates roils the Alaskan Senate race, here’s a look back at the political practice over the years.
Democrats' main Senate super PAC is privately telling top donors that Texas offers their best shot at flipping a deep-red Senate seat, followed by Ohio, where the race remains close. Senate Majority PAC also sees victories in Iowa and Alaska as within reach, though the outcomes could take longer to become clear. Why it matters: Democrats are increasingly confident about Election Day on Tuesday — and sharing their qualified optimism with their biggest donors. To retake the Senate, Democrats need to win two of those four states — all of which Trump won by double digits in 2024 — flip North Carolina and Maine, and avoid an upset in Michigan. JB Poersch, president of Senate Majority PAC, projected confidence that Democrats will wrest control of the Senate from Republicans during a private donor briefing this week as he walked through the races state by state. He also reminded donors that Kansas, where even Republicans are deeply worried, is a state Trump won by roughly 16 points in 2024. But it's in play . What they're saying: "This matches what we've been saying publicly and privately for weeks. There are signs of optimism in Texas, but it remains a toss-up, as do Iowa, Ohio and Alaska," said Lauren French, a spokesperson for SMP. "There is positive movement for Democrats, but it is critical to remember that every seat on the battleground map voted for Donald Trump by double digits," she said. "These are deep red states and we're focused on bringing them over the finish line so the Senate can work to provide real relief to families who are being crushed by the cost-of-living crisis." The big picture: Texas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988. Democrats thought they'd end the drought in 2018 and let themselves fall for then-Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who lost to Sen. Ted Cruz by 2.6 percentage points. Four years later, O'Rourke tried again to prove a Democrat could win statewide in Texas. He lost the governor's race by nearly 11 percentage points. T
Alaska's tight Senate race is facing a new controversy over two candidates named Dan Sullivan appearing on the ballot — a twist that's drawn attention from President Trump . The big picture: The controversy is adding uncertainty to one of the nation's most competitive Senate contests, with control of Congress on the line in next week's midterm elections. Catch up quick: The New York Times reported this week that Democratic operatives with ties to Mary Peltola's Senate campaign helped recruit a candidate named Dan J. Sullivan to challenge Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan. Trump accused Peltola and Democrats of election fraud and called for criminal prosecution, though the Times did not establish that any laws were broken. Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into Peltola's campaign over the NYT report. House Republicans are also launching an Alaska Senate race probe. Though the presence of two Sullivans in the Senate race has been known for months, the Times' report adds a new wrinkle to a dispute that's already reached the courts. Here's what to know about the controversy. The same-name Senate race controversy The controversy centers on two candidates with nearly identical names appearing on Alaska's Senate ballot: Republican incumbent Dan S. Sullivan and unaffiliated challenger Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. The ballot will show registered Republican "Sullivan, Dan S." and unaffiliated candidate "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." Peltola and Republican Gerald Heikes will also be on the ballot. The challenger initially filed as a Republican but later changed his registration to undeclared. He will appear on the ballot without a party label. Flashback: Concerns about the duplicate names have existed for months. In June, a top Alaskan election official ruled that candidate Daniel J. Sullivan was ineligible to run on the state's primary ballot. The official said she found the candidacy was "filed with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballo
The Michigan Senate candidate is calling for public ownership and other reforms, offering a potential antidote to ideological gridlock The Michigan senatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a Democrat, occupies a strange but increasingly common place in modern American politics. He’s praised by progressives, begrudgingly tolerated by moderate Democrats and largely demonized by Republicans. He’s also uniquely positioned to forge an all-too-elusive thread of political kinship between these perpetually-at-odds groups with his bold but contentious plan for reining in AI, called AI Under Democracy . Continue reading...
Data: Resources for the Future; Note: Central RFF scenario ; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios The Senate permitting plan would cut emissions from power plants in the near term and help keep electricity prices down, a new analysis finds. Why it matters: The study from scholars at Resources for the Future, a nonpartisan think tank, offers some of the most detailed independent modeling yet of the bill 's effects. It will help inform lobbying and advocacy around the bill ahead of a test vote looming on Nov. 9. Driving the news: The analysis models how the bill would affect the power sector compared with current law and policies. Among the findings from its central scenario: It would drive "robust" transmission expansion ( see above ), enabling "use of additional clean energy and existing resources of all types." Overall electricity system costs are an estimated 3.5% to 7% lower each year through 2041 compared to a no-bill baseline, saving over $350 billion total through 2050 in present-value terms. That should translate into lower electricity bills for people, co-author Kevin Rennert tells Axios, though the study does not directly model retail prices. The bill would boost the build-out of renewables, partly enabled by expansion of transmission, with added clean energy displacing fossil fuels even though additions of gas-fired capacity still occur. CO2 from the power sector would initially drop as more coal is edged aside, and then climb over time — but remain below levels projected without the bill. By the numbers: In 2028, there's roughly 60 gigawatts more clean energy capacity on the grid in the study's central outlook compared to a baseline of current law and policy. Data: Resources for the Future; Chart: Ben Geman/Axios The intrigue: The RFF analysis shows how it sees the bill initially pushing power plant emissions downward. Even that eventual upward trend is hardly guaranteed. This kind of study is by definition packed with assumptions and variables that the authors acknowl
President Trump accused Democrats and Mary Peltola's campaign of fraud and perjury Wednesday after the New York Times reported that Peltola aides helped recruit another candidate named Dan Sullivan. Why it matters: The revelations add a new twist to Alaska's tight Senate race, where a second Dan Sullivan on the ballot could complicate the Republican incumbent's reelection bid. Zoom out: "Mary got in this race because Alaskans deserve a champion who is fighting to lower their costs and put Alaska first, and no tweet or threat from any DC politician will keep her away from that fight," an "Alaskans for Mary" spokesperson said in a Wednesday night email. "The Alaskans for Mary campaign has no involvement with either Sullivan campaign." The campaign confirmed no assertions have been made in federal court about how Dan J. Sullivan's candidacy came to be or who was involved in his decision to run. Driving the news: The New York Times reported Wednesday that Peltola campaign aides worked with a veteran Democratic operative named Jerid Kurtz, whom the Times described as experienced in ballot-related political tactics. A Peltola staffer was reportedly told to search for every Dan Sullivan in the state. The effort ultimately located Dan J. Sullivan, a retired teacher who registered as a Republican shortly before filing to run for office, per the Times. Dan J. Sullivan previously said he voted for Democrats in the last three presidential elections. He later changed his party registration to undeclared and will appear on November's ballot without a political party label. The latest: Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy ordered an investigation into Peltola's campaign Wednesday as a result of the Times report, posting on X that: "Alaskans have a fundamental right to vote for the candidate they actually intend to support." "Deliberately tricking voters into casting their ballots for someone else strikes at the integrity of our elections," he said. Peltola called the Times report a distracti
Get ready to fall back
President Trump seems to think he can save a vulnerable Ohio Republican senator's ass by talking about how strong it is. Why it matters: Republicans are getting hammered over the war in Iran, gas prices and data centers. But they're playing along with Trump's ogling of male candidates, which he's described as an election strategy. "I don't do this with men very often. I started examining his body because I didn't know he was a great athlete. And I looked and I watched up and down and I looked at his ass," Trump said of Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) at an Ohio rally. "My wife and I have a good sense of humor, and we know he's doing all he can to help us win," Husted told Axios. "We have made sure to hit the gym during the busy campaign to uphold the high standards the president has set for us." Zoom in: In five rallies over three weeks across the country, Trump gave a head-to-toe appraisal of his most vulnerable Republican senator. "His ass was like a big piece of muscle," Trump said in Michigan last week. "Then I looked at his legs and I said, 'Man, his feet are big,' " Trump said in North Carolina. Polling has shown Husted narrowly behind or tied with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and Republicans view him as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent. Zoom out: Husted is getting the most love, but he's not alone. "You know, he's a very handsome guy," Trump said about Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) at a Montana rally earlier this month. "I like the white hair, I like the big, strong build. Big, strong guy." Trump said of Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), who is running for Senate in Georgia. Trump called him "all man." "I actually think that Rick Jackson's a very handsome, distinguished, beautiful-looking guy," Trump said about the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia. "Look at this beautiful guy," Trump said of House candidate Ed Gallrein (R-Ky.). Trump called him: "Central casting." Between the lines: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has also joined the fun: "I know tha
The most-aired ad in the closing stretch of Mississippi's Senate race features a Jeffrey Epstein survivor attacking GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for voting against releasing files related to the convicted human trafficker. Why it matters: In the past week, Hyde-Smith has been outgunned on the airwaves. AdImpact data shows that only one of the eight most-aired spots portrays her positively. Five of the ads either positively portray her Democratic challenger, Scott Colom , or attack Hyde-Smith for her Senate record, largely painting her as an out-of-touch senator who cares more about her rich donors. The other two ads are for down-ballot races. Zoom out: The Epstein survivor ad has aired more than 1,200 times over the last week, costing the left-leaning New Deal for All super PAC over $329K, per AdImpact. In the ad, Jena-Lisa Jones condemns Hyde-Smith for her vote on the Epstein files and urges Mississippians to vote against her to protect their children. That vote, which passed 51-49 last year, indefinitely postponed an amendment that would have required the full release of the Epstein files by then-Attorney General Pam Bondi. "I do want transparency, and I support releasing information that can legally be released while protecting Epstein's victims. But a procedural vote on one amendment is not the same thing as saying the Epstein files should remain secret," Hyde-Smith said in a statement to the Mississippi Free Press. Hyde-Smith's campaign cut its own attack against Colom, calling him the "transgender defender" and naming him the "most radical Senate candidate of our lifetime." The ad played over 2,800 times across Mississippi and Memphis, Tenn., television markets in the 30 days since its Sept. 10 debut, costing the senator's campaign over $854K, per AdImpact. Hyde-Smith's campaign appears to have pulled back on the ad, spending less than $150,000 to air it between Oct. 19 and Oct. 26. The bottom line: Hyde-Smith is still expected to win, but the race is far tighter
If Democrats gain full control of Congress next week, as many polls and prediction markets suggest they will, private equity could once again find itself in the political crosshairs. The big picture: Private equity has become a rhetorical punching bag for a number of Democratic House and Senate candidates, including in debates and on the stump, as an affordability bête noire. Most of this has related to housing, both single-family and mobile homes, but also has extended to health care. What they're saying: "It's no doubt that housing is way out of control and a big part of that is because private equity has come into Maine," said Troy Jackson in an Oct. 6 debate with Sen. Susan Collins. "I do think we have to go after private equity, make it so that they can't buy these things and charge outrageous prices." Chris Pappas, running for an open Senate seat in New Hampshire, said during a campaign stop at a mobile home community: "We need to... address the housing crisis that we're seeing, including addressing the corporate private equity influence that we're seeing in housing that's making it less affordable and is causing a lot of consternation here at this park." Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) decried PE ownership of residential care facilities during a public event, saying: "Those people know nothing about health care." State of play: Congress passed a bipartisan bill this past summer to restrict PE ownership of single-family homes, with the Treasury Department last week issuing related regulations . The legislation became law despite not being signed by President Trump, who supported it but was in a snit over the Senate not passing his voter identification bill. Zoom in: A Democratic sweep would likely result in Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) taking the Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee gavel, which means she'd go from writing strongly worded letters to holding hearings and guiding legislation. "Americans are sick and tired of private equity's playbook of ro
Some Democrats are making a play for segments of the "Make America Healthy Again" base, hoping pitches about food safety and environmental health will attract voters disillusioned with the Trump administration's lack of progress on those fronts. Why it matters: Policies around cleaning up the food supply and agricultural practices helped forge a coalition that's credited with helping President Trump win a second term. But disagreements over issues like pesticide use are fueling speculation that MAHA voters may not show up in force to help Republicans in the midterm elections — and may be persuaded to put their faith in Democrats instead. Driving the news: Some Democrats say they're the party better positioned to take on established interests through regulation and are honing messaging with an eye toward the 2028 presidential race. The Center for American Progress, an influential progressive think tank, recently released a proposal focused on healthier foods and reducing harmful chemicals alongside polling showing Democrats are poised to claim the agenda as their own. "I do think the MAHA grassroots movement has raised the salience of some issues where Democrats have an opportunity to align, particularly on chemicals and pesticides," said Topher Spiro, an author of the CAP report. "I think that these are issues that have been percolating for a long time, and that, frankly, Democrats haven't done a great job of prioritizing." "If you're looking at who are the swing voters in this electoral environment, they overlap very highly with voters who care about these issues," added Becca Siegel, chief insights officer at CAP. Though affordability concerns have dominated the midterm elections, some Democratic lawmakers and candidates have already backed legislation or policy agendas that overlap with MAHA themes. Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed last month released a proposal titled "Building a Healthier America" that included calls for banning certain pesticides — a k
Senate Republicans see Iowa moving their way and Ohio slipping, with pessimism growing over Alaska and Kansas. Why it matters: Even when they squint, top Republicans struggle to see a majority beyond 51 seats, according to half a dozen senior operatives. ✈️ A combination of paid media and Air Force One visits has bolstered GOP confidence that they'll hold South Carolina and Mississippi . But across the map, the outlook looks bleak, with only a few bright spots. Zoom out: Republicans are fighting a two-front war: unprecedented Democratic enthusiasm and undeniable Republican apathy. 🏈 President Trump's strategy is to whip up the MAGA faithful with rallies in the reddest parts of red states. 😱 "The Red Scream is my biggest concern , not the blue wave," said Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican consultant who has worked to help Trump get elected. ‼️ "Republicans and independents are going to be screaming for attention, and many of them, including those who voted for Trump, may show their frustration by not showing up." Zoom in: Texas is starting to look like a late-season football showdown against an SEC rival: The GOP is still in the game, but defeat seems like a real possibility. 🌾 In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall (R) has stopped the bleeding, but it's unclear whether there's enough time left to save his seat. 🛥️ Republicans are quietly bullish on Michigan, but they recognize that the demographics have to break heavily in their favor, especially among Black voters. By the numbers: The math hasn't changed, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) sees multiple paths to 51 seats. No one disputes that North Carolina is going to have a Democratic senator. It seems like another lifetime ago that Republicans were talking seriously about flipping Georgia. If just two of the next tier of Ohio, Kansas and Alaska flip, the Senate would be split 50-50 before factoring in other competitive races, like Michigan, Iowa and Maine. 🦞 In Maine, Republicans and Democrats a
Senate leaders could be guessing who will control the chamber well into November, thanks to a slew of tight races and state-specific voting rules. Why it matters: A GOP majority would ease the pressure on Senate Majority Leader John Thune to move quickly on nominations, while a Democratic majority would give Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer more leverage in the lame-duck session. If the chamber splits 50/50, leaders will have to start negotiating their power-sharing agreement. Zoom in: Four states could leave the majority in limbo. Alaska: Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) is trying to fend off former Rep. Mary Peltola (D). Alaska election results have taken weeks to finalize because of the vast state's transportation challenges, mail ballots and ranked-choice tabulation. The Trump Justice Department is preemptively trying to block results from being finalized if Sullivan narrowly loses. Maine's ranked-choice voting could lengthen the vote tallying if neither Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) nor Democratic nominee Troy Jackson gets more than 50% in the first round. Kansas' three-day grace period for mail-in ballots could delay results in the race between Democratic nominee Adam Hamilton and Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.). It is far closer than expected. In Texas, a dragged-out recount could be coming. A candidate can request one if the margin is less than 10% of the winner's vote total — which is likely to happen between state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) and state Rep. James Talarico (D). The candidate who requests it has to pay. The clock: Congress currently plans to leave for the holidays on Dec. 18. But if Republicans lose both the House and Senate , Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) wants senators to stay in town through the holidays (yes, Thanksgiving and Christmas) to work on a massive GOP reconciliation package they can pass without Democratic support. The big picture: Congress has a long to-do list either way, including funding the government past Dec. 11, passing emergency
President Trump has increasingly singled out Muslim politicians and communities in a bid to rally his base in the final push before election day. Why it matters: Trump's comments could energize some Republican voters in close races, but the strategy could alienate those who see the rhetoric as fearmongering or discriminatory . Driving the news: Trump's Monday appearance at a Michigan rally for GOP Senate candidate Mike Rogers included several barbs at Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed's Muslim faith. Trump suggested that El-Sayed posed a security threat, saying, "He would be the only senator that will have to go through a metal detector before he's allowed to go into the Senate." He also called El-Sayed a "jihadist," baselessly claimed the Senate candidate wants to impose sharia law in Michigan, and again accused him of having ties to the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sayed has repeatedly denied ties to extremist groups, and no evidence has emerged linking him to the Muslim Brotherhood. His campaign did not respond to a request for comment. Between the lines: Republican political consultant Dennis Darnoi told Axios that Trump's rhetoric "doesn't really move the needle one way or the other" in Michigan, where voters have heard similar language before. Darnoi says the strategy could "energize and mobilize" Trump's base. But it could also discourage Jewish and Black Democrats who backed El-Sayed's primary opponent, Haley Stevens, from supporting him in November. "It's not always about winning, but if you can minimize the size of your loss and then go into more Republican areas and gin up your turnout and gin up your margin of victory, then you can win a very close statewide race." By the numbers: About 38% of Michigan likely voters said they would be less likely to support a Muslim candidate, according to a Michigan State University poll released Monday. But 58% said a candidate's being Muslim would make no difference, while 52% said a Trump endorsement would make them less l
Four Senate Democrats are pressing Trump officials to begin restoring billions of dollars in clean energy grants before a key vote on the permitting deal. Why it matters: The path for the bipartisan bill in the lame duck session just got steeper. The big picture: Before the first vote, the senators — Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), Ron Wyden (Ore.), Ed Markey (Mass.), and Jeff Merkley (Ore.) — want Trump aides to tell the Energy Department to: Begin reinstating grants terminated in October 2025 that have not already been restored with a clear timeline for completion, and allow recipients to draw on the funds under the original terms. Pledge in writing not to cancel grants based on the political hue of a state or its officials. Driving the news: Their new letter to the bill's authors stops shy of an ultimatum, but says it would be "compelling" if these steps occurred. It shows deep misgivings about the bill, arguing it could provide new tools for Trump to favor fossil fuels. "[T]he promise of BAAJA will only succeed if President Trump takes care that it is faithfully executed. The Trump administration's record gives us no basis to assume that he will," the letter states, calling the bill by its acronym. Catch up quick: The letter recounts the scuttling of Biden-era grants, and White House budget chief Russ Vought listing states that did not vote for President Trump in 2024. The Energy Department has acknowledged , in a court filing , that selections of grants for termination in October 2025 were based on politics. Restoring "unlawfully terminated DOE clean energy awards would be a small but important first step" toward fairness in permitting, it states. Friction point: Co-authors Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) want to see more federal approvals of stalled renewables projects. They've called some recent administration moves a step in the right direction. But the new letter shows that other lawmakers have separate asks of the administration. Alr
Top Democrats poised for powerful roles next year are demanding that major banks and ports preserve any records they have tied to potential imports or other deals involving Russian diesel . Why it matters: Probing President Trump's agreement with Moscow will be a priority if Democrats regain control of either or both chambers of Congress. The new demand shows that inquiries will extend beyond the White House and into C-suites. Driving the news: "[A]ny importation of Russian diesel into the U.S. raises significant legal questions and may be subject to legal action, as well as congressional investigations," a new letter obtained by Axios states. It's signed by Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.). They're in line to lead the powerful Foreign Relations, Banking, Finance and Judiciary Committees, respectively, if Democrats regain the Senate. Rep. Greg Meeks (D-N.Y.), who's in line for the Foreign Affairs Committee gavel if House control changes, also signed. It's led by Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), the top Foreign Relations Democrat who is not seeking reelection. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), who is also retiring, signed as well. State of play: The Wall Street recipients of Saturday's letter are J.P. Morgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The same letter went to port authorities for the ports of Houston, Beaumont, and Corpus Christi, Texas, and New York/New Jersey. Catch up quick: Earlier this month Trump claimed an agreement to bring escalating Russian exports to global and U.S. markets, and the Treasury Department waived sanctions to help enable it. Friction point: The lawmakers and other critics say it runs afoul of a bipartisan 2022 law barring imports of Russian oil, gas, and petroleum products. "The potential arrangement to import Russian diesel also raises significant national security concerns, given that it would finance Russia's brutal and illegal war ag
President Trump's Board of Peace has appointed Shelley Greenspan, who served as the White House's Jewish community liaison during the Biden administration, to lead its outreach to Congress and the Washington think tank community. Why it matters: Greenspan's selection is part of an effort by the Board of Peace to increase bipartisan support for President Trump's Gaza peace plan. The implementation of the plan is expected to get a renewed push after the midterms and the formation of a new Israeli government. The possibility of Democrats controlling the House or Senate makes the need for bipartisanship on the Gaza plan even more crucial. Driving the news: The plan has been stuck due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's refusal to take any steps in Gaza before the October 27 elections. In recent months, multiple prominent Democrats have expressed support for Trump's plan. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton endorsed the plan in June, calling it the most viable proposal. Zoom in: Greenspan, a career civil servant at the State Department, was at the White House National Security Council during Biden's term — both as the American Jewish community liaison and the director for partnerships and elobal engagement. At the Board of Peace she will lead external affairs, putting her in charge of outreach to Congress and Middle East experts. What they're saying: "Shelley brings deep experience working across the aisle, having earned the trust of Democrats and Republicans alike through her service at the White House, National Security Council, and State Department in Democratic and Republican administrations," the Board of Peace told Axios in a statement. "Sustained, bipartisan support from Congress is essential to the work ahead, and Shelley is uniquely capable of leading this effort," the board added. Greenspan told Axios in a statement that she worked in her last State Department role to advance Trump's "vision for peace and prosperity in the Middle East." "I saw
The 2026 midterms have taken a deeply personal turn as campaigns use other people's family tragedies as political ammunition — sometimes over the objections of the families themselves. Why it matters: Some attack ads feature photographs of murdered children and anguished 911 calls, forcing grieving families to relive their worst moments. Georgia governor race: Republican gubernatorial nominee Rick Jackson used images of murdered 8-year-old Secoriea Turner and her mother's anguished 911 call to attack Democratic rival Keisha Lance Bottoms, Atlanta's former mayor. Turner's family demanded the ads come down, accusing the campaign of exploiting their grief without permission. Jackson said he would keep airing them . Ohio governor race: Ohio Republican gubernatorial nominee Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign is spending $4 million on an ad featuring the estranged mother of his Democratic opponent, Amy Acton. In the ad, Donna Arthur calls her daughter a liar and disputes her account of childhood homelessness. Acton says her late stepfather — who was married to her mother until his death — sexually abused her as a child, and she hasn't spoken to her mother in decades. Acton's brother corroborated her account , while court records and contemporary news reports support key details. President Trump urged Ramaswamy to keep running his attack on Acton, despite objections from some fellow Republicans. Between the lines: Ramaswamy's campaign said the ad tested well with persuadable voters , even as critics warned it could backfire. Ohio Senate race: A Republican attack ad against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown featured images of a couple and their 1-year-old son killed in a highway crash to blame Brown's immigration policies. The victims' family demanded its removal , saying nobody sought permission to use their relatives' images or tragedy. North Carolina Senate race: A Republican super PAC featured a grieving father in an attack ad linking the murder of his 23-year-old son to for
With just nine days until the midterms, the Trump administration is escalating its assault on two of the Department of Justice's most sacred guardrails: Independence from the White House. Restraint before elections. Why it matters: President Trump's DOJ has shattered the traditional calm of a pre-election period with a barrage of politically sensitive investigations, prosecutions and eleventh-hour efforts to influence the vote. Zoom in: The Justice Department's most aggressive election intervention yet came this week in Alaska, where a preemptive lawsuit seeks to delay certification of the state's U.S. Senate results — if the Democrat wins. The DOJ argues that a second candidate, Dan J. Sullivan Jr., could confuse voters and siphon support from the Republican incumbent, Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. The administration wants certification halted if Sen. Sullivan loses to Democrat Mary Peltola but could have won with votes cast for the other Sullivan, pending an investigation into voter intent. Between the lines: Alaska's Supreme Court already ruled that the second Sullivan belongs on the ballot, and the state's ranked-choice system allows voters to rank both candidates. Legal experts question the DOJ's authority to block certification of a state-run election, or how officials could determine voters' intentions without compromising ballot secrecy. Peltola's campaign and national Democrats have moved to intervene in the lawsuit, challenging the administration's preemptive attempt to halt certification. Zoom out: Alaska is just one front in an October offensive aimed at rooting out alleged election fraud, investigating prominent Democrats and relitigating Trump's oldest political grievances. On Oct. 7, Trump established a White House committee to investigate alleged mortgage fraud by Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook , authorizing DOJ personnel to participate in proceedings that could lead to her removal. Cook denies wrongdoing. On Oct. 12, federal agents searched Rep. Ilhan O
The quickest and most affordable response to historically high diesel prices is also the simplest: Use less of it. Why it matters: Diesel is so entrenched in farming, trucking and other industries that even soaring prices aren't enough — at least not yet — to prompt a wholesale shift to alternatives from electric semi trucks to manure-powered tractors. Catch up fast: Diesel prices have climbed to record highs since the U.S. war with Iran began in February, rising faster than gasoline amid global oil supply disruptions . Diesel averaged $6.31 a gallon Thursday, up 74% from a year ago, according to AAA . Regular gasoline averaged $4.27, up 39%. The big picture: Gasoline gets the attention, but diesel is the workhorse of the American economy. It powers grocery trucks, tractors, freight trains, construction equipment, hospital backup generators and even school buses . Driving the news: The price spike is hitting farmers during the fall harvest. "Farmers buy diesel by the truckload, so we're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars in diesel, and when it goes up the way it has spiked, that's the difference between profit and loss in a year," said Curt Blades, senior vice president at the Association of Equipment Manufacturers, a trade group representing tractor makers and other heavy-equipment manufacturers. The financial pain varies: Trucking companies can often pass higher fuel costs to customers through surcharges. Farmers, who have little control over crop prices, generally can't. The economic pressure has become political ahead of the midterm elections. President Trump announced $8 billion in one-time aid for farmers at a campaign rally in Kansas on Monday, where Republicans face a competitive Senate race. "It's a bit too soon to tell the impact," Blades said of the aid package, though he welcomed support during harvest. State of play: Trucking and agricultural equipment experts say the most immediate savings come from using existing diesel engines more effici
Democrats in a pair of deep-red states are testing the religious right's dominance by putting their Christian faith at the center of their campaigns — potentially creating a template for the party to compete in similarly forbidding terrain. Why it matters: Upsets by Texas' James Talarico and Kansas' Adam Hamilton would all but ensure that Democrats take the Senate. A recent poll from Pew shows both an opening and an obstacle: White evangelicals still strongly favor Republicans, while many other Christian groups lean Democratic or are more narrowly split. The big picture: Talarico , a Presbyterian seminary student, and Hamilton, a United Methodist pastor, are challenging conservatives' claim to speak for faith. Their bids come after Democrat Raphael Warnock, senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church, was elected to the Senate in 2021. President Trump won both Texas and Kansas by double digits in 2024. Neither state has sent a Democrat to the Senate in the 21st century — the last time Kansas did was in 1932. Both races this year are considered toss-ups . Zoom in: Talarico's "religiosity is a way to soften his liberalism" and potentially win over Christians turned off by his scandal-plagued opponent , says Brandon Rottinghaus, who co-hosts Houston Public Media's "Party Politics." Talarico has also made several visits to Black Baptist churches . Trump made inroads with minority communities in Texas, and Talarico looks to do the same after besting Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), who is Black, in a brutal primary. He's harnessed scripture in his pitch against Christian nationalism and for protecting the vulnerable, invoking the biblical campaign slogan, "It's time to start flipping tables." "We're in a populist political moment, and many of the teachings of the social gospel give him an opportunity to link the politics and his faith together," Rottinghaus adds. By the numbers: A September Marist survey of 1,139 Texas registered voters showed Paxton with a 75% to 22% lead
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) are living out their midterm nightmares — with nominees they didn't want and former colleagues they no longer control. Why it matters: Together, Schumer and Thune are stuck with five Senate races in which their party establishments thought they had a better chance of winning with someone else. 🤠 Texas: Thune's efforts to stop Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton from winning the party's Senate nomination failed. Now Republicans are spending more than $329 million to defeat state Rep. James Talarico— and it's still a nail-biter. 🍑 Georgia: GOP leaders couldn't convince Gov. Brian Kemp to run. The eventual nominee, Rep. Mike Collins, has struggled to keep pace with fundraising juggernaut Sen. Jon Ossoff (D). GOP money is in retreat. 🦞 Maine: Schumer endorsed Gov. Janet Mills, but Graham Platner's implosion left Democrats with backup Troy Jackson against Sen. Susan Collins. ⛴️ Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens and made a name for himself nationally. But he won by just one point even though primary polls showed him up by double digits. He's now polling within the margin of error against the GOP nominee, former Rep. Mike Rogers. 🏈 Minnesota: Peggy Flanagan ran as a progressive, said she would not support Schumer as leader and bested establishment-backed Rep. Angie Craig. But Cook Political Report moved her race against former NFL sideline reporter Michele Tafoya toward Republicans even as it shifted other races toward Democrats. To make matters worse, Thune's and Schumer's former colleagues are creating fresh headaches by boosting candidates across the aisle. Former Sen. Joe Manchin, who flipped to independent in 2024 after being elected as a Senate Democrat, is campaigning for Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), as Semafor reported. Former Sen. Kyrsten Sinema , who also flipped from Democrat to independent before leaving office, is boosting Republican Jay Feely in her hom
Calley Means , the health entrepreneur who became the Trump administration's most vocal advocate of the MAHA agenda, resigned from his senior adviser post on Thursday. Why it matters: Means' departure two weeks before the midterm elections underscores the MAHA base's discontent with the pace of change on food policy and the administration's stances on issues like pesticide use . Driving the news: Means expressed "tremendous respect" for President Trump and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in a statement on X , praising their efforts to take on "entrenched, dark forces in DC" and advance the MAHA agenda. He cited the administration's work to overhaul dietary guidelines , advance psychedelic therapies , ban the use of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits for sugary drinks, and get food companies to voluntarily remove artificial dyes and other additives from products. The Department of Health and Human Services didn't immediately respond to a request for comment. Between the lines: Tensions between the MAHA faithful and the administration peaked in February, after Trump issued an executive order to increase domestic production of glyphosate, a common weed killer. Kennedy and others close to the movement had argued pesticides are making Americans sick. But agriculture interests said restricting their use would raise food prices and cost farmers billions. Trump had tapped Means' sister, Casey , a nutrition influencer, for surgeon general last year but withdrew the nomination in April after her confirmation process stalled in the Senate.
The fragile Senate permitting deal is a major priority across the energy industry, per newly filed lobbying disclosures. Why it matters: The filings reveal behind-the-scenes efforts by powerful interests and companies representing oil and gas, mining, renewables, environmentalists and plenty in between to shape the legislation. The big picture: The bill title (Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act), its acronym (BAAJA) and its bill number appear throughout third-quarter lobbying disclosures. The bill was introduced Sept. 30, the last day of the third quarter. The disclosures, due Oct. 20, offer a window into efforts to influence the legislation during its drafting and negotiations. The lobbying extends beyond groups that specifically named the bill in their filings. Many others with a stake in the bill — like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers — list permitting legislation in other ways. Driving the news: Here's just a small subset of the parties in the arena. Industry groups like the American Petroleum Institute, the Edison Electric Institute, the American Forest & Paper Association, the National Mining Association, and the Data Center Coalition. Green groups including Earthjustice, the Nature Conservancy, and Defenders of Wildlife. Low-carbon power trade groups such as the Solar Energy Industries Association. State of play: The lobbying goes far beyond trade associations, with many individual companies also involved. They range from Chevron and BP to power giants like Duke Energy and Southern Company to geothermal startup Fervo. Industrial and equipment heavyweights like Caterpillar, Schneider Electric and Cummins are there, too. Zoom in: The disclosures also offer clues about which provisions attracted lobbying attention. For example: The National Mining Association identified BAAJA provisions that would change Clean Water Act permitting, including state water quality reviews and limits on lawsuits challenging perm
Data: Harvard Youth Poll, Fall 2026; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Nearly two in three U.S. adults younger than 30 who plan to vote in next month's congressional midterm elections say their main motivation is to oppose President Trump and his policies, according to a newly released Harvard Youth Poll . The big picture: Seventy-seven percent of respondents disapprove of the president's handling of the economy, including about half of young Republicans. And just 9% say the U.S. is headed in the right direction — the lowest in the survey's history. Why it matters: Economic populism is driving emotions, along with concerns about war, AI, billionaires, deportation tactics, social policies and corruption. Majorities of respondents support Medicare for All, a wealth tax and bans on congressional stock trading. What we're watching: Just one in three Americans ages 18-29 say they'll definitely vote — a substantial drop from 40% who said so in 2022. Notably, most of that drop is driven by Republicans. Only 34% of Republican respondents said they'll definitely vote, down from 46%; 50% of young Democrats say they'll definitely vote, essentially unchanged. Just 22% of independents they'll definitely vote, down from 26%. Data: Harvard Youth Poll; Chart: Emily Peck/Axios Zoom in: Topping the list of what young people consider serious threats to their long-term financial security: rising prices and the cost of living (79%), followed by the power of large corporations (68%) and trade wars (68%). Nearly half said their household is struggling to make ends meet or getting by with limited financial security. By the numbers: 63% say their votes for U.S. House or Senate will be cast in opposition to Trump, while 14% say they're motivated by support of the president and 17% say he's not a factor. Two-thirds disapprove of the job Democrats are doing in Congress; 74% disapprove of congressional Republicans' performance. Stunning stats: For the first time in the poll's history, the share of young
Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas. Why it matters: It's been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party. "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort," one national Republican political operative told Axios. "We are now fighting hand to hand." The Senate map, which once looked impregnable for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities. Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls. The other side: "We're nervous about Alaska. We're nervous about Michigan. We're still going to hold the Senate at the end," said another operative. Zoom in: Two weeks ago, when Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina, operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi. At the time, they concluded they didn't need to spend any money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter. But Senate Republicans are now reviewing the Mississippi race and may need to spend there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid by Democratic district attorney Scott Colom . Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday. Zoom out: In early June, SLF started to reinforce a Midwestern red wall to protect the GOP majority, reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa . Those investments have ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa. After an initial $5 million buy in South Carolina, SLF's spending has increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Bar
