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U.S. blockade, sanctions crippling Iran's economy, Treasury report says

The U.S. naval blockade, sweeping economic sanctions and obstruction of overland export routes have crippled Iran's economy and intensified pressure on the regime, according to a new Treasury Department report obtained by Axios. Why it matters: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is leading an economic pressure campaign dubbed "Operation Economic Outcast," is one of Trump's closest aides urging him to let the initiative play out rather than rush back into combat. Though the report doesn't argue that the Iranian regime is close to collapsing, it does lay out the Treasury Department's view that its efforts have crippled Iran's economy and limited its ability to generate revenue. Driving the news: As he did before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing to possibly resume major combat operations after the midterms. The Treasury campaign, which launched in late August, is a third track. But U.S. officials say it needs more time to destabilize the regime and potentially convince the Iranian leadership to make concessions at the negotiations table. On Thursday, Trump met with his top national security and foreign policy aides to discuss the war. U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, who commands forces in the Middle East, briefed Trump on the ongoing naval blockade . Bessent discussed the economic pressure campaign. "Bessent is telling the President the economic pressure campaign is working and that things are getting worse in Iran and that this could further destabilize the regime and push the Supreme Leader to agree to a deal," a U.S. official said. Zoom in: The Treasury report highlights several indicators of Iran's economic crisis: Currency collapse: The Iranian rial has lost roughly a quarter of its value since the operation began in August. In October, the unofficial exchange rate reached a record low of 2.687 million rials

Axios · Oct 30
Top U.S. Middle East commander briefs Trump on Iran blockade

U.S. Central Command chief Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of forces in the Middle East, briefed President Trump Thursday on the state of the Iran war, with a focus on the ongoing naval blockade , according to two U.S. officials. Why it matters: As he did before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the midterms. Behind the scenes: Trump wanted to hear directly from the CENTCOM head on whether the naval blockade is working, the U.S. officials said. Cooper also briefed Trump on the military operation for guiding oil tankers out of the Strait of Hormuz to global energy markets. And he updated Trump on the economic pressure campaign the military is conducting in concert with the Treasury Department. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine, White House envoy Steve Witkoff and other senior officials also attended the meeting, the officials said. The White House and CENTCOM declined to comment. The Wall Street Journal first reported the meeting. Driving the news: A group of regional mediators led by Qatar is trying to get the U.S. and Iran to head off a resumption of war after the midterms in favor of negotiations. "The mediation is at a very sensitive stage," a regional source said. Qatari mediators recently delivered a letter from Vice President Vance to Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Gen. Mohsen Rezaei. Vance proposed restarting negotiations but stressed that any talks would have to address Iran's nuclear program. Trump and Vance met Wednesday to discuss a possible gesture of goodwill toward Iran, such as sending humanitarian goods like food and medicine, according to a source with knowledge. Later in the day, Trump publicly backed the idea. What they're saying: U.S. Amba

Axios · Oct 29
GOP's closing argument gets cheeky

President Trump seems to think he can save a vulnerable Ohio Republican senator's ass by talking about how strong it is. Why it matters: Republicans are getting hammered over the war in Iran, gas prices and data centers. But they're playing along with Trump's ogling of male candidates, which he's described as an election strategy. "I don't do this with men very often. I started examining his body because I didn't know he was a great athlete. And I looked and I watched up and down and I looked at his ass," Trump said of Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) at an Ohio rally. "My wife and I have a good sense of humor, and we know he's doing all he can to help us win," Husted told Axios. "We have made sure to hit the gym during the busy campaign to uphold the high standards the president has set for us." Zoom in: In five rallies over three weeks across the country, Trump gave a head-to-toe appraisal of his most vulnerable Republican senator. "His ass was like a big piece of muscle," Trump said in Michigan last week. "Then I looked at his legs and I said, 'Man, his feet are big,' " Trump said in North Carolina. Polling has shown Husted narrowly behind or tied with former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D), and Republicans view him as the most vulnerable GOP incumbent. Zoom out: Husted is getting the most love, but he's not alone. "You know, he's a very handsome guy," Trump said about Sen. Tim Sheehy (R-Mont.) at a Montana rally earlier this month. "I like the white hair, I like the big, strong build. Big, strong guy." Trump said of Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.), who is running for Senate in Georgia. Trump called him "all man." "I actually think that Rick Jackson's a very handsome, distinguished, beautiful-looking guy," Trump said about the Republican gubernatorial candidate in Georgia. "Look at this beautiful guy," Trump said of House candidate Ed Gallrein (R-Ky.). Trump called him: "Central casting." Between the lines: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has also joined the fun: "I know tha

Axios · Oct 29
Attack ads flood Mississippi's shockingly-competitive Senate race

The most-aired ad in the closing stretch of Mississippi's Senate race features a Jeffrey Epstein survivor attacking GOP Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith for voting against releasing files related to the convicted human trafficker. Why it matters: In the past week, Hyde-Smith has been outgunned on the airwaves. AdImpact data shows that only one of the eight most-aired spots portrays her positively. Five of the ads either positively portray her Democratic challenger, Scott Colom , or attack Hyde-Smith for her Senate record, largely painting her as an out-of-touch senator who cares more about her rich donors. The other two ads are for down-ballot races. Zoom out: The Epstein survivor ad has aired more than 1,200 times over the last week, costing the left-leaning New Deal for All super PAC over $329K, per AdImpact. In the ad, Jena-Lisa Jones condemns Hyde-Smith for her vote on the Epstein files and urges Mississippians to vote against her to protect their children. That vote, which passed 51-49 last year, indefinitely postponed an amendment that would have required the full release of the Epstein files by then-Attorney General Pam Bondi. "I do want transparency, and I support releasing information that can legally be released while protecting Epstein's victims. But a procedural vote on one amendment is not the same thing as saying the Epstein files should remain secret," Hyde-Smith said in a statement to the Mississippi Free Press. Hyde-Smith's campaign cut its own attack against Colom, calling him the "transgender defender" and naming him the "most radical Senate candidate of our lifetime." The ad played over 2,800 times across Mississippi and Memphis, Tenn., television markets in the 30 days since its Sept. 10 debut, costing the senator's campaign over $854K, per AdImpact. Hyde-Smith's campaign appears to have pulled back on the ad, spending less than $150,000 to air it between Oct. 19 and Oct. 26. The bottom line: Hyde-Smith is still expected to win, but the race is far tighter

Axios · Oct 28
Dolores Huerta, pioneering labor activist, dies at 96

Dolores Huerta , the pioneering labor organizer who co-founded the United Farm Workers and coined the rallying cry "Sí, se puede," died Wednesday at 96, her family announced on her Instagram account. Why it matters: The civil rights legend helped lead strikes and boycotts, fought to expand rights for Hispanic Americans and became a powerful kingmaker in politics. What they're saying: "We are deeply saddened to announce that our beloved mother, Dolores Huerta, has passed away today at the age of 96," her family wrote in a statement posted on Instagram . "As you can imagine, this is an incredibly difficult time for us, and we ask for privacy as we grieve this incredible loss to our family. We know that many of you around the world share in our mourning, and we will be following up on plans to recognize and celebrate her incredible life and legacy." Her cause of death was cancer, per the New York Times. Zoom in: Huerta worked alongside farmworker leader César Chávez, organizing workers who were routinely subjected to poor labor conditions on farms. The pair founded UFW with fellow activist Gilbert Padilla. Huerta also stood next to Sen. Robert F. Kennedy moments before he was fatally shot after his 1968 California primary win, after having worked to get Mexican American voters to support him. She would befriend the widows of RFK and Martin Luther King Jr., Ethel Kennedy and Coretta Scott King, as they fought together for civil rights. Dolores Huerta, co-founder of the United Farm Workers group, with a union flag that reads 'Viva La Causa', 1970s. Photo: Cathy Murphy/Getty Images Catch up quick: Chávez, who died in 1993, allegedly sexually abused multiple women and girls during his time as UFW leader, which only came to light this year following a New York Times investigation. Huerta said that she was raped by Chávez decades ago, becoming the most high-profile figure to accuse him of misconduct . "I carried this secret for as long as I did because building the movement

Axios · Oct 28
Cheesecake Factory, tan suits, and the staying power of culture wars

With less than a week until a potentially historic midterm election , the political discourse is being dominated not by war or seismic shifts in technology, but by the Cheesecake Factory . The big picture: Culture wars regularly swarm American political discussions, especially when the jibes are personal. Former President Obama's passing joke over the weekend about Cheesecake Factory decor did just that — by criticizing President Trump 's personal taste and style. "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory," Obama said, poking fun at the president's controversial White House renovations . Zoom in: John Murphy, professor emeritus at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign who studies political rhetoric, tells Axios that the first time he heard Obama's comment, he "really did think, 'this is going to go somewhere.'" That's both because of the messenger and the butt of the joke: Obama "can get under Trump's skin like no one else in the world can," he says. Obama knows all too well how seemingly trivial moments can blow up; in 2014, he wore a tan suit instead of a black one to discuss foreign policy, and years later his sartorial choices remain a political talking point. The tan suit has its own Wikipedia page , and still nets pop culture references . State of play: Days after Obama's quip, the news cycle and social media are still serving up the joke, and the White House posted "Lo-fi" beats accompanied by a cartoon image of Trump in front of a Cheesecake Factory. Conservative critics used the jab to paint Obama as elitist. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent , a multimillionaire, criticized Obama outside a Cheesecake Factory, saying he "had a great meal, and I would tell the Martha's Vineyard set to give it a try." Murphy notes that framing comes from a classic red v. blue playbook to paint Democrats as "elitist." "It's a conscious strategy, I think, on the part of conservative media to gin up culture-war arguments," he says. Th

Axios · Oct 28
Shapiro looks like a 2028 powerhouse — with an asterisk

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro is an electoral juggernaut in America's biggest swing state — and he's widely seen as a likely contender for president in 2028. But strategists in both parties question how tested he really is. Shapiro's success — he's cruised to victory in multiple statewide races — has come with an asterisk: He hasn't faced a well-financed opponent in recent contests, leading some political insiders to see him as more of a wildcard than his resume suggests. Why it matters: Shapiro's unfamiliarity with intense, bruising campaigns could become a liability in the 2028 Democratic primary, where if he was a top candidate, he'd be confronted with a barrage of attack ads, opposition research and rivals with deep pockets. A plugged-in Democratic operative in Pennsylvania suggested that because of Shapiro's lack of being tested, "it is totally possible that he has an incredible glass jaw — and that he is the Scott Walker of 2028." Walker was the swing-state Wisconsin governor who looked good on paper as a potential presidential candidate but flopped after entering the 2016 GOP primary. Zoom in: In next week's election, Shapiro is running for a second four-year term as the Keystone State's governor. He's on pace to defeat Republican challenger Stacy Garrity by double digits, according to the latest polls. The money gap is gargantuan: Shapiro has dropped $42 million on campaign ads, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Garrity, the state's treasurer, has spent just $3 million on ads — a drop in the ocean in a state as large as Pennsylvania, with its expensive advertising markets. It's not that Garrity prefers, say, door-knocking to TV ads. She's just outmatched: Campaign finance reports show she's only raised about $11 million this cycle, compared with Shapiro's $64 million. Making matters worse for Garrity, the Republican Governors Association (RGA) has not come to her rescue on the airwaves. Christopher Nicholas, a longtime GOP strategist in Pennsylvan

Axios · Oct 25
Airlines' new normal: Higher fares, fewer flights

That wince you just made while researching travel options? Get used to it. Why it matters: Soaring jet fuel prices are accelerating changes across the airline industry, seen in higher fares, premium-heavy cabins and fewer flight options for travelers. Airfares rose 22% year over year in September, marking a 10th straight monthly increase in the government's airfare price index , which hit an all-time high. State of play: All the major airlines are feeling the pain: American Airlines reported Thursday that its fuel bill jumped nearly 70% in the third quarter from a year ago, adding $1.9 billion in costs and undercutting its revenue growth. Southwest and United Airlines both slashed their profit forecasts this week on higher fuel costs. And Delta Air Lines expects its fuel bill this year to come in $6 billion above last year's. The impact: To protect their bottom lines, airlines are raising fares and turning to more premium seats to squeeze more revenue out of their flights. At Southwest, the average passenger fare rose 26.9% to $231.69 in the third quarter, compared with a year earlier — and that doesn't include fees. Delta's premium seating revenue jumped 18% in the third quarter, even though the number of premium seats rose only 6%. What they're saying: The airlines have few options to make up for extra fuel costs other than fare increases, said Scott Keyes, founder of flight-deal service Going.com. "None of them are hedging fuel the way they used to, in large part because they had a pretty terrible experience with it," Keyes said in an interview. The big picture: Airline executives, however, see these changes — many of which were already underway — as a necessary new normal. This year's fuel spike has only "accelerated" change, Delta CEO Ed Bastian said on the company's earnings call on Oct. 9. "Regardless of the next move in fuel prices, the forces reshaping the U.S. airline industry will continue with many carriers struggling to earn their cost of capital well b

Axios · Oct 22
Scoop: Senate Republicans fear Mississippi is in play

Senate Republicans are weighing three last-ditch spending moves that would have been unimaginable six months ago: a cash infusion for Mississippi and even more money for South Carolina and Kansas. Why it matters: It's been 94 years since Kansas elected a Democratic senator, 44 years for Mississippi and 28 for South Carolina. But panic is spreading through the Republican Party. "The wall has broken. The enemy is inside the fort," one national Republican political operative told Axios. "We are now fighting hand to hand." The Senate map, which once looked impregnable for Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is now full of vulnerabilities. Democratic challengers are polling within the margin of error in more than half a dozen deep-red states, according to internal GOP polls. The other side: "We're nervous about Alaska. We're nervous about Michigan. We're still going to hold the Senate at the end," said another operative. Zoom in: Two weeks ago, when Senate Leadership Fund decided to take out a $5 million "insurance policy" in South Carolina, operatives took a hard look at Idaho, South Dakota and Mississippi. At the time, they concluded they didn't need to spend any money in those states, according to a person familiar with the matter. But Senate Republicans are now reviewing the Mississippi race and may need to spend there to protect Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith from a surprisingly competitive bid by Democratic district attorney Scott Colom . Senate Majority PAC, the main super PAC for Senate Democrats, announced a $1.2 million investment in the race on Tuesday. Zoom out: In early June, SLF started to reinforce a Midwestern red wall to protect the GOP majority, reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa . Those investments have ballooned to $93 million in Ohio and $53 million in Iowa. After an initial $5 million buy in South Carolina, SLF's spending has increased to $8.5 million, according to AdImpact. And a super PAC linked to Sen. John Bar

Axios · Oct 21