Senate Republicans' worst nightmare came true Tuesday night, as they watched red state after red state fall to a historic Democratic wave . Why it matters: It's hard to remember now, but Republicans started off the 2026 cycle thinking they could expand their majority. They ended the night with what one source called a "huge f**king thumping" — losing or trailing in every toss-up on the map. At the start of the cycle, top operatives saw a red wall of incumbents in Trump-friendly states, an invincible Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine and a vulnerable Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia, who provided a path to expanding a majority. By 9pm Tuesday night, top GOP sources were quietly accepting the reality of the return of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.). "Republicans are going to wake up in a different country tomorrow and we are going to have to start from square one to reinvent a party," one senior GOP Senate aide told Axios on Tuesday evening. Between the lines: For the first time since 1972, Republicans lost a Senate seat in the home state of the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The defeat of Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) came despite Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) leading the NRSC. Republicans also lost in the home state of the next expected NRSC chair, Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio). Zoom in: North Carolina and Georgia were expected to be the premiere races of the cycle not too long ago. Both were called for Democrats before 8:30pm EST. That was just the beginning of the nightmare. In Texas, Elon Musk's more than $150 million infusion wasn't enough to save Texas GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton after Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a nasty primary. In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted's (R-Ohio) campaign had a rocky start — and wasn't bailed out by President Trump's publicity campaign about his rear end. Alaska started looking shaky even before a second Dan Sullivan joined the ballot, and Iowa wasn't a given either. In Kansas, alarm bells started ringing
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US set to host Summer and Winter Olympics USOPC CEO says business model in early stages The US Olympic and Paralympic Committee (USOPC) is in the advanced stages of setting up an entity to sell a stake in the commercial rights for Team USA in return for capital, according to multiple reports. Any deal would mark a significant shift for the USOPC, a non-profit organization that, unlike many national Olympic committees, relies heavily on sponsorships, licensing and other commercial revenue streams rather than government funding. Continue reading...
These graphics explain what the Democrats would need to do to flip the Senate and House of Representatives A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term has arrived. Voters across the US are deciding whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority. Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration. Continue reading...
Democrats are poised to romp in today's election — easily winning the House and, according to most forecasts, flipping the Senate too. Yet the party itself is less popular than the IRS . Even the GOP has a better brand. Why it matters: There's a difference between a blowout and a mandate. Confusing the two could tempt Democrats to overread the results and forget the serious credibility problem they still face heading into 2028. The big picture: Democrats have done a lot of things right to position themselves for a big night. They recruited candidates who've put red state Senate races that seemingly were beyond reach, within their grasp. Many of those candidates vastly outraised their Republican opponents. But polls across the board still show a lesser-of-two-evils election — or as one Republican tied to President Trump's political operation described it, a contest of which party voters hate more. Voters are more eager to disempower Trump than to empower Democrats. By the numbers: Just 29% of registered voters have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party vs. 38% who view the Republican Party positively, according to a pre-election NBC News poll . The same poll showed Democrats with a 7-point lead in the congressional generic ballot, 52 to 45. And nearly 6 in 10 voters who plan to back Democrats in the election said their vote is about stopping Trump and Republican policies — vs. 4 in 10 who said they were more motivated to help Democrats enact their policies, per an October CBS News/YouGov poll . Zoom in: Many Democrats say they're determined not to repeat the mistake they made after the last midterms in 2022. They defied predictions of a red wave and saw it as an endorsement of Joe Biden and their party — when voters actually were increasingly angry. The post-2022 takeaway ultimately laid the groundwork for Trump's return to the White House after the 2024 election. Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms — and went on to impeach Trump the following year. Thi
Some House Democrats want Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) expelled from their caucus after she crossed party lines to endorse Republican Mike Rogers for Senate on Sunday. Why it matters: It would be an extraordinary step that reflects the deep internal resentment towards Stevens within her own party. "I hope she doesn't return to work on Tuesday," Rep. Lateefah Simon (D-Calif.) told Axios, saying Stevens should be removed from the caucus. "Agreed," Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) told Axios, arguing the endorsement "doesn't accomplish anything except hurt[ing] Haley" and that "she got bad advice." "I'd support that," Rep. Emily Randall (D-Wash.) said of removing Stevens from the caucus. Driving the news: Stevens infuriated colleagues on Sunday by endorsing Rogers over Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who defeated Stevens in the Senate primary in August. Stevens, a pro-Israel moderate, had been urging the more left-leaning El-Sayed to more forcefully denounce a super PAC ad partially blaming U.S. aid to Israel for rising prices. Stevens said the ad claimed "Jews are responsible for America's economic woes." El-Sayed pushed back in a statement saying Stevens "seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago." Stevens attended church with Rogers on Sunday and released a video to social media endorsing him. The two also held a joint press conference. What we're hearing: There has been private discussion about moving to oust Stevens, a senior House Democrat said, telling Axios, "That's what people want." Stevens was also removed from several House Democratic text chains, the senior lawmaker said. A second House Democrat told Axios: "I've heard people invoking the rule about not endorsing against Democrats." "Endorsing a Republican in a tipping point state is ridiculous, especially from a Democrat ... She should be removed from our caucus altogether," a third House Democrat said. Yes, but: Not everyone is on board with the idea — even those frustrated at Ste
President Trump had a candid phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Saturday about the state of U.S. negotiations with Iran and how quickly to return to combat, according to one Israeli and one U.S. source. Why it matters: The sources said Netanyahu is pressing Trump to strike Iran immediately after the midterm elections on Tuesday. But Trump, for now, wants to let negotiations play out — a strategy Netanyahu is concerned about. The Israeli source said the call was "tough," while the U.S. source described it as "direct." The White House and the Israeli prime minister's office declined to comment. Driving the news: As he did before Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 and Operation Epic Fury in February, Trump is pursuing dual tracks — trying to reach a deal to restart peace talks while also preparing for a possible resumption of major combat operations after the midterms. Last week Vice President Vance sent a letter to Iran's national security chief Mohsen Rezaei about the possibility of restarting negotiations . It was the most senior-level outreach by the U.S. to Iran in several months. Trump told reporters on Saturday that negotiations with Iran are "going fine" and noted he is not "in much of a hurry." While the Iranians want to make a deal, the president said they "are not very reliable. ... They make a deal and then they back out." At the same time, Trump said the U.S. still has to "take care" of one or two nuclear sites in Iran. "We can do that in 10 minutes. We have that planned. You can look at Pickaxe Mountain. We need to take care of that. We can do that very quickly," Trump said, referring to a suspected nuclear site built into a mountain. The Wall Street Journal first reported the Trump-Netanyahu call, but did not describe its contents. State of play: Qatari mediators met with Iranian officials on Sunday for the third consecutive day in an effort to reach a deal to restart direct negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Iranian Forei
One man’s campaign finance operation in Wisconsin exemplifies the opacity of the US political funding system In the summer of 2024, a non-profit called the Green Dragon Coalition wired the last $20,000 of a $445,000 grant to a Super Pac . Its tax return for that year would describe the purpose of the transfer as “educational”. The same day, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) records, the Super Pac spent $8,000 attacking Celeste Maloy, the Republican congresswoman for Utah’s second district, four days before the primary that would decide whether she kept her seat. It had already spent more than $400,000 promoting her challenger, Colby Jenkins, who was running to her right with the endorsement of the rightwing Utah senator Mike Lee. Continue reading...
Can Florida’s continuity trump the transfer portal? Will JuJu Watkins pick up where she left off? And who will survive an expanded March Madness? Our writers weigh in Lots of stuff. The return of JuJu Watkins at USC after her 19-month injury layoff , the debut of Tyran Stokes at Kansas, the potential turnaround of the Big East on the men’s side, and the stacked ACC on the women’s side. Ella Brockway Continue reading...
Call it a new Apollo moment: Rocket launches from Cape Canaveral, Florida, are now outpacing those of the Cold War-era space race that first made the launch site famous. Why it matters: U.S. leaders are rushing to grow the number of rocket providers at America's busiest spaceport amid a space and arms race with China. Beijing plans to send a crew to the Moon by 2030 or sooner and is rapidly building up its satellite and rocket fleets. What they're saying: "There's nothing really comparable in the background of my career to what we're experiencing today," Space Force Col. Brian Chatman, the commander of Florida's rocket range, told Axios in an exclusive interview. Behind the scenes: The Cape is busy expanding to meet President Trump's mandate for the nation to support 1,000 annual launches by 2030. Chatman said with all the contractors on base, inspection backups and parking chaos abound. A rundown of some major projects Chatman is overseeing: SpaceX is expanding its footprint on the Cape for its Starship super heavy-lift launchpads. Newcomers Relativity Space and Stoke Space are setting up their facilities and are aiming to launch rockets for military and commercial customers sometime in late 2026 and 2027 . NASA is preparing for next year's Artemis III testing missions, and the Artemis IV voyage that aims to return astronauts to the Moon by 2028. Blue Origin is rapidly rebuilding its launch complex after its New Glenn rocket exploded in May. Jamie Draper, the Cape Canaveral Space Force Museum's director, told Axios there's been "boom and bust" cycles throughout the base's history. "We're definitely in one of those boom cycles right now," Draper said. By the numbers: Last year, Space Launch Delta 45, the military command overseeing the Cape, supported 109 orbital liftoffs from the base — the most in its history. In April, Space Launch Delta 45 oversaw five different rocket launches for unique missions, breaking a record set at the height of the U.S.-Soviet space rac
Regional mediators led by Qatar are trying to reach a diplomatic deal to restart negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and prevent the resumption of war after the midterm elections, three U.S., Israeli and regional sources say. The Qataris are working to convince Iran to allow UN inspectors to visit its bombed nuclear sites in return for some sanctions relief from the U.S. Why it matters: A renewed bombing offensive appears likely shortly after the midterms without a last-minute deal. IDF chief of staff Gen. Eyal Zamir spoke on Monday with CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper to coordinate ahead of potential attacks. Such an operation is expected to include a week of massive strikes on Iranian leadership, energy, nuclear and infrastructure targets, U.S. and Israeli officials say. What he's saying: President Trump told Axios in a brief interview Wednesday that negotiations with Iran are taking place through mediators but stressed that he doesn't know whether they'll bear fruit. "We need to finish the job — either through a deal or another way — we will find out if negotiations can succeed," he said. "While our Brave Armed Forces are fully prepared to defend the Homeland, Iran continues to give diplomacy a chance to succeed," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on X Wednesday. Behind the scenes: The mediation efforts are being led by Qatar, with the support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey, sources say. Qatari negotiator Ali al-Thawadi visited Tehran earlier this week for talks with Iranian officials about a potential deal with the Trump administration. A regional source briefed on the talks said the Qataris presented ideas for how to bridge the gap between the U.S. demand that Iran give up its enriched uranium stockpile and Iran's insistence that the U.S. first lift its naval blockade and release Iran's frozen funds. The regional source and a U.S. official said the mediators are telling Iran that accepting the proposals may be the only way to avoid major a
A day after Venezuela's exiled opposition leader returned to Caracas with great fanfare, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a veiled warning against interfering with the country's fragile democratic transition pushed by the Trump administration. "You're not going to street-protest your way into a democracy," Rubio told reporters Monday without explicitly mentioning María Corina Machado . Why it matters: Machado's demands for elections next year — and her criticism of a massive U.S. oil deal struck with the current Caracas regime — have put administration officials on edge after her surprise return. "Rubio is on a political edge," said a White House source familiar with his thinking. "Venezuela is the top foreign policy achievement of this administration, and if the progress we made gets undone and Machado is a spoiler, nobody wins." A Machado spokesperson didn't return messages seeking comment. Zoom in: Machado and U.S. officials agree that Venezuela needs to hold elections. But she has demanded they be held in 2027, while U.S. officials aren't sure. They want three things to happen first: Reform Venezuela's Supreme Court. It's stocked with loyalists of Nicolás Maduro , who was seized Jan. 3 by the U.S. and spirited to New York City to face narcotrafficking charges. The State Department hopes a new court is picked by year's end. Reform Venezuela's National Electoral Council. It's also filled with Maduro's people, and with the Supreme Court it helped him steal his last two elections as president. The State Department hopes a new council will be in place by early next year. Fix Venezuela's debt. Venezuela has one of the world's largest sovereign debt problems — $300 billion, more than its gross domestic product. The hoped-for timeline regarding this hurdle is less clear, and Rubio didn't explicitly discuss it Monday. Between the lines: As Axios first reported in September, Trump discussed all three of those issues with Rodriguez when he also told her privately
President Trump will campaign with three football stars in Texas on Tuesday, leaning into America's favorite sport as Republicans scramble to turn out voters in the final week before the midterms, Axios has learned. Why it matters: Trump is trying to mobilize the lower-propensity voters who helped return him to the White House in 2024 — but who may be less inclined to vote when he isn't on the ballot. Driving the news: Former college football star Johnny Manziel and two-time Super Bowl champion Danny Amendola were scheduled to join Trump for campaign appearances in Lubbock and Corpus Christi. Former University of Texas quarterback Colt McCoy also was expected to join Trump as of Monday afternoon, but did not appear. The appearances bring some of Texas' biggest football names onto the campaign trail in a state where the sport commands an enormous following. Amendola starred at Texas Tech in Lubbock; Manziel won the Heisman Trophy at Texas A&M. The big picture: Trump has made football a recurring feature of his campaign stops in recent weeks. He attended the Texas-Tennessee game in September and planned to attend the Georgia-Alabama showdown earlier this month before canceling because of a hurricane. Former NFL coach Jon Gruden joined Trump at an Ohio rally this month, while former Georgia and NFL star Todd Gurley accompanied the president on a stop in Georgia. Vice President Vance, a lifelong Cincinnati Bengals fan, visited the team's practice facility last week while campaigning in Ohio. Republicans are also pouring millions into ads during NFL and college football games. What they're saying: "Trump has many bases. And football is one of them, college and pros," said an adviser. "The response is good. And the president loves the atmosphere. So why not?" Between the lines: Football offers Trump a way to reach younger men who helped power his 2024 victory — a constituency Republicans are struggling to energize in the midterms. By the numbers: Polls suggest Republicans
Harvard economist Jason Furman told Axios that if he were to return to his old job as chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers today, he would rely on AI tools over staff economists for much of the council's day-to-day analytical work. The big picture: Unsurprisingly, this made some waves in the online discourse, particularly the loose-knit community formerly known as Econ Twitter. Many veterans of the economic policy trenches see real risks in future policymakers becoming overly reliant on AI — or at a minimum think that Furman is underestimating the importance of human economists in advising the nation's leaders. What they're saying: "CEA work, at least in my experience, is highly bespoke as you're explaining the data flow (and much else) to very busy people who don't want only market-shop analysis," Jared Bernstein, the CEA chair under President Biden, wrote on Substack . "Yes, they want and need that — what will the markets make of this CPI, jobs, GDP, etc. report — but more so they want to know how this report fits into our narrative, our agenda, the president's trip today to Iowa." He adds that within a White House, "the human skill of reading-the-room is paramount. I'm far from an AI expert, but my sense is it sucks at that and probably always will, a conclusion that derives in no small part from listening to its creators!" Zoom in: Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist, raised an issue that we've often heard from senior people in fields like consulting and investment banking: If you get rid of junior positions, where will future senior leaders come from? Furman's staff "went on to found the Yale Budget Lab, run Treasury economic policy and a Fed institute, serve in later [administrations], and publish research on trade, environment, and taxes. That's what '20 staff' become," she wrote on X . "No model does that." Bloomberg chief U.S. economist Anna Wong argues that the "ability to now not depend on anyone, as a senior person, is ve