Young voters swung so hard toward Democrats in Tuesday's midterms that it raises new doubts about whether Republicans can build a lasting coalition among Americans under 30. Why it matters: Trump's success with Gen Z voters, especially young men , fueled talk of a generational shift toward Republicans. Tuesday's results tell a different story. By the numbers: An estimated 66% of voters ages 18–29 backed Democratic House candidates Tuesday, compared with 31% for Republicans, according to Tufts University's CIRCLE , which analyzed preliminary data from the NORC Civic Health & Elections Project. That's a 35-point Democratic advantage, compared with 14 points in the 2024 national House exit poll , when young voters favored Democrats 56%–42%. Democratic support among men under 30 rose from 51% in 2024 to 59% in 2026. Among young women, it climbed from 61% to 70%, according to 2024 exit polling by Edison Research and CIRCLE's updated 2026 analysis of NORC data. Young white voters favored Democrats 63%–34% in the SSRS survey, after splitting 50%–48% in 2024. State of play: Polls flashed warning signs for Republicans in the final weeks before Election Day. An October Harvard Youth Poll found voters ages 18–29 who said they would definitely vote favored Democrats 63%–26%. Just 9% of young Americans said the country was headed in the right direction. Zoom in: Democrats drew overwhelming support from young voters in major statewide races, according to preliminary SSRS polling. In Texas, 76% of voters under 30 supported Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico, while 73% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa, according to CIRCLE's state analysis . In Georgia, 70% backed Democratic gubernatorial candidate Keisha Lance Bottoms. More than 60% favored Democratic candidates for Senate and governor in Ohio. In Iowa, where young voters backed Trump in 2024, Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson lost significant ground with the group, according to AP Voter Poll
Results for “52-point 24-rebound”
Chipmaker stocks are leading a selloff on Wall Street Thursday. Nvidia Corp. shares slid 7% at one point. Qualcomm Inc. and Arm Holdings Plc’s sank on underwhelming outlook. Bloomberg's Ian King tracks the latest on "Bloomberg Tech." (Source: Bloomberg)
After an election like this one, the political consultant class searches for one tidy explanation for what went wrong. There never is, and anybody who tells you a single issue cost Republicans control of Congress is selling you something. Smart politicos can all point to inflation, turnout, candidate quality, and the old midterm curse on […]
President Donald Trump is deflecting blame for his party’s sweeping midterm losses even as Vice President JD Vance says it was the Iran war that cost his party. NBC’s Gabe Gutierrez reports for TODAY.
Data: Axios research; Map: Andrew Pantazi/Axios Democrats are on track to take control of a majority of legislative chambers, ending 16 years of Republican dominance over America's statehouses. If current leads hold, 75% of Americans will live in a state with a Democratic governor, and 53% will live in Democratic trifectas. Why it matters: Statehouses are the front line of American federalism, and Tuesday's gains dramatically expand Democrats' power to increase minimum wages, protect abortion access, and set voting rules ahead of 2028 for most Americans. Driving the news: The party is set to flip 12 legislative chambers, dismantle five Republican state trifectas, shatter 11 GOP supermajorities and build 12 of its own, according to AP returns as of 6pm ET on Wednesday. If leads hold, Democrats will control the governor's office and both chambers in five of the seven 2024 presidential battlegrounds: Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. They have also broken Republican one-party rule in the sixth (Georgia) and flipped the House in the seventh (North Carolina). Democrats flipped five GOP-held governorships (Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas) and lead in Alaska. Republicans haven't flipped any, despite targeting Arizona, Michigan, Oregon and Wisconsin. Kansas, where Democrat Cindy Holscher was leading by about half a point Wednesday evening, is uncalled. The big picture: Ever since the 2010 Tea Party wave, Republicans have used their grip on statehouses to reshape American life: banning abortion, loosening gun laws, restricting collective bargaining and expanding private-school vouchers. They drew maps that kept them in power even in years Democrats won more votes statewide. Tuesday's Democratic gains broke that firewall. By the numbers: Republicans entered Election Day with 23 trifectas (control of the governor's office and both chambers) to Democrats' 16. If leads hold, Democrats will have 22 and Republicans 18. 24% of Americans will live under a
In a press release, Laconia police said Redic approached the Turning Point tent as he was leaving and wanted "to read a poem about rich people."
Democrats' midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force. Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024 — even if they got the headline outcome right this time. By the numbers: Democrats are on track to win the national House popular vote by roughly 13 percentage points, compared with a final Silver Bulletin polling average of 8.9 points, according to an initial analysis by The Argument's Lakshya Jain . That roughly 4-point gap is similar to the 2020 polling miss that underestimated Republicans and larger than the average partisan errors in 2016 and 2024, though comparisons to presidential years are imperfect. The big picture: Pollsters entered the 2026 midterms having underrated Trump's support in three consecutive presidential elections. Their central challenge was accounting for Republican voters who might be missing from their surveys. Many polling organizations have sought to compensate by weighting results based on party affiliation or how respondents voted in previous elections. A Pew analysis found that nearly 70% of national polls used such political weighting in 2024. In an October analysis , The Washington Post warned that a collapse in turnout among Trump voters could cause polls calibrated to the 2024 electorate to underestimate Democrats. Tuesday's results raise questions about whether the industry's efforts to correct past polling misses contributed to a new one. Reality check: Some of the pollsters that projected the largest Democratic margins appear to have come closest to the final result. AtlasIntel placed itself first in a ranking of final national House polls based on its projection of the popular-vote margin. It's the second straight election where the pollster stood out for its accuracy. AtlasIntel's final poll showed Democrats leading by 14.1 points, just 0.3 points from th
Global stock markets erased a selloff sparked by a Democratic sweep of the US Congress, as uncertainty surrounding the midterms faded. What are analysts watching now? Bloomberg's Charlie Wells explains. (Source: Bloomberg)
Tuesday’s resounding defeat, a generational extinction-level event that swept Democrats into power not just in Washington but across the country in state capitals, needs to become the starting point for rebuilding a Republican Party that owes its voters, nominees, volunteers, and donors something more than personal loyalty. Republicans need an honest accounting of what went […]
As voters across Texas rejected Republicans to elect their first Democratic senator and governor in decades, nowhere was the shift more pronounced than in heavily Latino South Texas.
Signs point to an exceptionally tough two years for business leaders, whom many on the left believe cowered under pressure from the president.
Former Republican governor of North Carolina and NBC News political contributor Nikki Haley joins TODAY with a message to Republicans and Democrats following the midterm elections results and the seismic shift in power. “To my fellow Republicans, this is not the time to whine, complain or point fingers…The bottom line is Republicans didn’t listen to the American people, they listened to Washington. D.C.,” adding, “For our Democrats, you can celebrate but be careful what you wish for. Y
The blue landslide upends the political map, with ripples for years to come.
Mississippi’s Senate race remained too close to call early Wednesday, with Democratic challenger Scott Colom holding a razor-thin lead over Sen. Cindy Hyde Smith (R) by less than 1 percentage point. With nearly all ballots counted, Colom led Hyde-Smith by a little over 2,000 votes — 461,370 to 459,201 — as of early Wednesday morning,…
A Democratic sweep of Congress rippled across global markets, with stocks fluctuating while the dollar fell and Treasuries gained on bets the outcome will put the brakes on President Donald Trump’s agenda. Futures for the S&P 500 rose 0.2% while those for the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3%. Both fell earlier before buyers stepped in. The dollar weakened against major peers, while 10-year Treasury yields fell three basis points to 4.93%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 climbed 0.6% and a gauge for Asian equities was little changed. The Opening Trade has everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. With analysis you won't find anywhere else, we break down the biggest stories of the day and speak to top guests who have skin in the game. Hosted by Anna Edwards, Guy Johnson and Tom Mackenzie. (Source: Bloomberg)
Democrats will be able to take plenty of messaging votes on health care after their blowout wins Tuesday — but they'll face too many limits and internal disagreements to force all of the big policy changes they want. Why it matters: They'll have a tough time repealing Medicaid cuts or restoring enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies while President Trump is still in office, and their own divisions will hold them back on other issues. And Medicare for All ? Last night gave the idea a big boost, but don't hold your breath. Friction point: With control of both the Senate and House, Democrats will have powerful new leverage — but that leverage will also expose fault lines. Until now, progressives backing Medicare for All and centrists favoring more incremental changes were united in opposing Trump administration policies and blaming the president and the Republican Congress for the health affordability crisis. They'll try to use their power in the next Congress to promote sweeping changes with an eye toward the 2028 elections while also advancing more piecemeal policies, hoping to force some deals with Republicans. But they'll still face divisions over how to expand the federal government's role in the health system, or how to bend the steep health cost curve. Driving the news: House Democrats have already signaled their opening moves with a 100-hour/100-day agenda agenda that prominently features health policies like reinstating the enhanced ACA tax credits that expired at the end of 2025. There will also be votes to roll back the steep cuts to federal Medicaid spending that Republicans included in their "One Big Beautiful Bill," per an 84-page memo from a health care working group to Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Other near-term agenda items include expanding Medicare drug price negotiations to private insurance, restoring withheld National Institutes of Health research funding and ending the use of AI in authorizing certain services in traditional Medic
Gov. Katie Hobbs defeated her Republican challenger, Representative Andy Biggs, despite a concerted campaign by Turning Point USA, Charlie Kirk’s organization.
Nevada voters have approved a ballot measure protecting abortion up to the point of viability, officially adding the protection to the state constitution, Decision Desk HQ has projected. The measure allows the state to enact restrictions after viability is reached, which is usually around the 24-week mark, except when necessary to protect the life or health…
Latino voters helped Democrats break Republicans' decades-long grip on Texas and reclaim both chambers of Congress on Tuesday, casting doubt on President Trump's historic 2024 gains with the fast-growing electorate. Why it matters: Republicans bet Trump's Latino breakthrough two years ago would create a lasting GOP realignment in Texas and beyond. Tuesday's results exposed how quickly those gains could unravel — and raised new questions about Republicans' coalition heading into 2028. Early results show Hispanic voters' shift aided Democrats in capturing a Senate seat and the governorship in Texas for the first time in a generation. Tuesday's results — particularly in South Texas border counties — reflected some of the anger among Hispanics over high prices and the Trump administration's immigration enforcement. "This is what happens when you mess with the Latino community. We are sending a clear message," said Hector Sanchez Barba, president and CEO of the voting group Mi Familia Vota. By the numbers: Early NBC News exit poll results showed Latino voters moving away from Republicans. Democrats' 16-point advantage in Latino party identification grew from 10 points in 2024, according to NBC's polling. Some 43% of Latino voters identified as Democrats, up from 39% in 2024. Republican identification slipped from 29% to 27%. In the early NBC exit poll, 75% of voters nationally described the economy as struggling, while 65% said Trump's policies had made economic conditions worse. State of play: Democrats reclaimed the House and Senate while ending Republicans' statewide winning streak in Texas dating to 1994. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico defeated Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton , winning a Senate seat Democrats last captured in 1988. Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa ousted Republican Gov. Greg Abbott , becoming Texas' first elected Latina governor. Early returns also suggested Latino voters helped Democrats win crucial House contests in Colorado and Geo
Democratic Louisiana state Rep. Patricia Moore and Republican state Rep. Gabe Firment are projected to advance to a runoff in Louisiana’s 5th House District race, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). Moore had less than a one percentage point advantage over Firment as of 12:53 a.m. with 93 percent of votes in on Wednesday morning,…
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass held a 12-point lead over challenger Nithya Raman in two recent exit polls — but a surge in younger voters could threaten the incumbent’s advantage as the mayoral showdown heads toward its conclusion. Polls obtained by the California Post conducted on Oct. 22 and Nov. 2 showed Bass leading Raman...
As early results from the US midterm elections started to point toward a decisive win by Democrats, shares of prominent Republican-backer Elon Musk’s companies Tesla Inc. and Space Exploration Technologies Corp. dropped in after-hours trading.
An unhinged elderly man was caught on video shouting at a young Turning Point Action volunteer before appearing to backhand him at a polling place in Laconia, New Hampshire, during Tuesday's midterm elections. The post Watch: Crazed Leftist Reportedly Assaults Turning Point Action Volunteer at Polls appeared first on Breitbart .
Republicans outpolled Democrats on the issue of immigration 44 percent to 40 percent, according to exit polls Tuesday. The post Exit Poll: Republicans Hold 4-Point Advantage on Immigration Issue appeared first on Breitbart .
Virginia voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment that will allow abortion on demand, at any point in a pregnancy, for any or no reason at all in Tuesday’s election. As of press time, approval of the amendment received about 62 percent of the vote, though final vote tallies are still being made and not all […]
WASHINGTON — As a blue tsunami descended on Washington, frustrated Republican operatives and people close to the White House were in agreement on one key point: the war in Iran was the chief cause of the destruction. “People will try to overcomplicate this, but its really simple,” one national GOP operative told The Daily Wire. ...
Early voting results in Indiana show Democrat J.D. Ford holding a substantial lead over his opponent Victoria Spartz in Hamilton County. By comparison, the early point dump from the county in 2024 showed then-Vice President Kamala Harris leading by just one point.
“An 18-year-old stood his ground at the polls in New Hampshire today and was assaulted for it,” Turning Point Action posted on X, sharing a video of the incident.
Florida voters elected Republican Byron Donalds as their next governor Tuesday in a race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. Donalds was declared the victor over Jolly by just about a point with 93% of precincts reporting. He will take office in January, replacing DeSantis — a favorite among conservatives — after eight years ...
In a Fox News interview, Trump said the U.S. will stop giving Israel weapons for free because Abdul El-Sayed keeps talking about it. The post Trump Scrambles to Halt Military Aid to Israel to Deprive El-Sayed of a Talking Point appeared first on The Intercept .
Arizonans will vote on Tuesday to choose their chief executive as one-term incumbent Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) faces off against five-term U.S. Rep. Andy Biggs, a longtime Trump ally. Hobbs, who was previously the Grand Canyon State’s secretary of state, narrowly defeated another Trump ally, former broadcaster Kari Lake, by less than a point in…
Lockhart said she was leaving the party on a "point of principle" and would continue as an independent unionist MP.
President Trump said on Tuesday that he has reached a deal with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that will end U.S. aid to Israel this year. Trump said in an interview with “Fox and Friends” that he and Netanyahu made a deal “months ago” for Washington to end its aid to Israel. “They’re fine with…
These graphics explain what the Democrats would need to do to flip the Senate and House of Representatives A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term has arrived. Voters across the US are deciding whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority. Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration. Continue reading...
Democrats are seeing a narrow lead as voters head to the polls Tuesday, according to a new survey. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, released Monday, found that 46 percent of registered voters said they would back Democrats in congressional races, compared with 38 percent who favored Republicans. That margin narrowed from an 11-point Democratic advantage in a…
The giddy mix of anticipation and despair that Democrats are experiencing today should be familiar to them. It’s the old “nauseously optimistic” feeling that has been their lot in every election since 2016. All the dashboard indicators point toward big gains for the blue team in Congress and state capitols from coast to coast, but,…
Plus, the U.S. strikes Iran’s Qeshm Island, and higher prices might not save Apple’s slowing growth machine.
Closely followed oil strategist Jeff Currie says it’s time to cash in on gains that crude has seen this year, but that the structural supercycle is still intact.
Democrats are poised to romp in today's election — easily winning the House and, according to most forecasts, flipping the Senate too. Yet the party itself is less popular than the IRS . Even the GOP has a better brand. Why it matters: There's a difference between a blowout and a mandate. Confusing the two could tempt Democrats to overread the results and forget the serious credibility problem they still face heading into 2028. The big picture: Democrats have done a lot of things right to position themselves for a big night. They recruited candidates who've put red state Senate races that seemingly were beyond reach, within their grasp. Many of those candidates vastly outraised their Republican opponents. But polls across the board still show a lesser-of-two-evils election — or as one Republican tied to President Trump's political operation described it, a contest of which party voters hate more. Voters are more eager to disempower Trump than to empower Democrats. By the numbers: Just 29% of registered voters have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party vs. 38% who view the Republican Party positively, according to a pre-election NBC News poll . The same poll showed Democrats with a 7-point lead in the congressional generic ballot, 52 to 45. And nearly 6 in 10 voters who plan to back Democrats in the election said their vote is about stopping Trump and Republican policies — vs. 4 in 10 who said they were more motivated to help Democrats enact their policies, per an October CBS News/YouGov poll . Zoom in: Many Democrats say they're determined not to repeat the mistake they made after the last midterms in 2022. They defied predictions of a red wave and saw it as an endorsement of Joe Biden and their party — when voters actually were increasingly angry. The post-2022 takeaway ultimately laid the groundwork for Trump's return to the White House after the 2024 election. Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms — and went on to impeach Trump the following year. Thi
Americans used to agree on this point: it’s not good for a person to be registered to vote four or five times at once. These days, even mentioning shortcomings in American elections is polarizing. Improving election administration doesn’t have to be so polarizing. That polarization is unfortunate because facts matter. All the evidence shows our ...
President Trump extolled his administration's Reflecting Pool project , dug up debunked claims of vandalism and applauded the new White House helipad in a Monday pre-Election Day speech. The big picture: Trump's deep focus on remaking the nation's capital has taken center stage as the clock ticks down to midterm elections. Driving the news: "The pool is now better and more beautiful than it's ever been before, and we're very proud of it," Trump said in Monday's speech, adding, "We went through a lot with vandalism." But Trump's own Justice Department dropped vandalism charges against former Olympian David Hearn , whose case was later killed by a judge after prosecutors acknowledged that faulty installation caused the damage to the Pool. Trump added the administration was "giving serious thought" to renaming the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to the "Trump Reflecting Pool," before later saying he was kidding. Throughout the speech, he held up printed images he identified as pipes, joints and other Pool materials. He also showed an image that appeared to show "8647" sprayed onto the base of the emptied pool, claiming "that was a Comey phrase" — a reference to his former FBI director and top foe. Zoom out: He also discussed his White House renovation projects, including the recently installed helipad and Scotts Miracle-Gro's lawn restoration after the UFC fight on White House grounds. Friction point: Trump's projects, including his D.C.-area arch and White House ballroom, have been broadly panned by Americans in polling. "This project should be a project that unites all Americans," Trump said Monday of the newly reopened Reflecting Pool, which stood empty for an extended period earlier this year. Zoom in: His pre-election pitch at times sounded more like a typical rally speech, where he touted his immigration policies and war with Iran while slamming Democrats as "a party that hates America." This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midte
Don Levy, director of Siena University's Research Institute, said that there is 'tremendous momentum' with the El-Sayed campaign in Michigan as Democrats and Independents give him an 11-point lead against Republican Mike Rogers in Siena's last poll before election day. Siena University polling shows momentum for Democrats across battleground states, with candidates up in Texas, Kansas and Alaska. (Source: Bloomberg)
President Trump told Axios in a phone interview Monday he's "in no rush" to decide whether to resume fighting in Iran. Why it matters: The midterm elections have been seen as an inflection point for Trump on whether to unleash a massive bombing campaign to try to bring the war to an end. But it appears the president, at least for now, will continue pursuing dual tracks — letting negotiations play out while preparing to go back to war if he concludes a deal isn't possible. What he is saying: "One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline and their people are getting very tired of it," Trump said in the interview. Driving the news: Qatari mediators have written a draft agreement outlining a three-day sequence of confidence-building measures aimed at resuming direct U.S.-Iran negotiations, according to regional sources. A diplomat with knowledge of the situation said the Qatari mediators are waiting for feedback from the U.S. and Iran. Trump is giving diplomacy a chance but is clear-eyed about the chances of reaching a deal. "We are talking to them. It's going fine. The problem with them is ... they try and tap tap tap [us along]. There's less urgency [on the Iranian side] than you think there would be, but they want to make deal more than they ever wanted," Trump said. Between the lines: Trump is weighing three courses of action, backed by three different camps: Make a deal: Vice President Vance and White House envoy Steve Witkoff are urging him to move toward a deal because a renewed war might not change the situation for the better. Most Gulf countries support this position and have communicated that to Trump, sources say. Go back to battle: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to resume combat, as does Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. They argue that Iran can't be trusted to make a deal let alone abide by one, and that Trump should finish the job militarily. Maximum econo
Our polls suggest the economy is biggest motivator of voters’ choices in these midterm elections and that Democrats are more trusted to fix things.
Republicans and Democrats hold last rallies around the United States as polls point to a tight congressional race.
As voters head to the polls this election cycle, the famous political catchphrase “it’s the economy, stupid” remains as pertinent as ever. Economic issues are top of mind for nearly all voters, regardless of political affiliation. Americans are rightfully concerned about the rising cost of living. At no point in the past five years have […]
Erin Ogunkeye is pleased to welcome Richard Johnson, Senior Lecturer in US Politics at Queen Mary University of London. He says that "Donald Trump is damaged goods at this point in his presidency." With this uncompromising assessment, Johnson takes us through the political forces shaping the 2026 US midterm elections. Far from assuming that Trump's formidable campaigning instincts can once again mobilize Republican voters, Johnson questions whether the president's political influence has become a liability for the very party he once transformed. He points to a potentially significant realignment within the American electorate. Economic grievances, rising living costs, trade disputes and disillusionment with the war in Iran appear, in Johnson's reading, to be weakening important elements of the coalition that sustained Trump's return to power. Particularly consequential is the possibility that Latino voters, agricultural communities and sections of the MAGA electorate may be reconsidering their political loyalties or withdrawing from electoral participation altogether.
Abdul el Sayed was supposed to win the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by a comfortable margin this summer, but the polls missed what was really brewing on the ground. An expected 10-point romp turned into a nail-biter; he won by roughly 1 percentage point. That underperformance was driven by a coalition of relative moderates, Jewish […]
Over the closing stretch of the midterm campaign, President Donald Trump, who is 80, launched a 32-day blitz and at one point was scheduled for rallies in seven states in seven days. Whatever one thinks of what he says on those stages, the schedule itself is a data point. It sits awkwardly beside a story […]