Voters in Minneapolis and Houston are among those leaving "I Voted" stickers at memorials for people killed by federal immigration agents. Why it matters: The tributes highlight how the Trump administration's unpopular immigration crackdown is motivating voters this election cycle. Zoom in: In Minneapolis , people are placing stickers on memorials for Alex Pretti , an ICU nurse, and Renee Good , a writer and mother, who were killed by federal agents in January. In Houston , voters have covered a memorial for Lorenzo Salgado Araujo , a construction worker and father who was fatally shot by ICE agents in July, with stickers and handwritten messages like "I voted for you" and "Por usted" — "for you" in Spanish. A voter places an "I Voted" sticker on a memorial for Lorenzo Salgado Araujo. Photo: Mark Felix/Bloomberg via Getty Images Ronaldo Salgado, Araujo's oldest son, placed his sticker on his father's memorial in the first week of early voting and hundreds followed him, the Houston Chronicle reports . "I am beyond touched that this community and that the entire city is voting with my dad in mind ... I didn't realize it would grow this big," he told the Washington Post. The big picture: These midterms are testing whether President Trump's 2024 gains with Latino voters have lasted. National polls in the lead-up to Election Day showed Latino voters swinging back toward Democrats , with immigration as a key area of disagreement with the administration. In an October NBC News/Telemundo poll , 67% of Latino voters said Trump's enforcement has gone too far, 31% said they or someone close now carries ID because of ICE concerns, and 27% know someone detained or deported. More from Axios: Voting machine chaos hits key House battleground Inside the White House's Election Day messaging strategy Democrats could learn wrong message from a blowout victory
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Michigan Rep. Haley Stevens has requested U.S. marshals' protection after the Democrat told authorities she had received death threats for endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in the swing state's hotly contested Senate race, two senior Trump administration officials tell Axios. Why it matters: Stevens' surprise decision Sunday to switch her endorsement to Rogers over Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed was the biggest political story of the midterm campaign's final days. Stevens — who lost to El-Sayed in the Michigan Senate primary — was widely criticized by Democrats after siding with Rogers, and her top staff members resigned. "She has received death threats and reached out to the Marshals Service," one of the officials said. "There's a process to go through but she's a member of Congress and we expect her request will be fulfilled." Zoom in: Stevens' support for Israel and his criticism of the Jewish state was a major dividing line in their primary campaign. Stevens objected to El-Sayed's ties to controversial progressive streamer Hasan Piker and an ad by a PAC tied to Piker's uncle, Cenk Uygur, blaming Israel for rising grocery prices. El-Sayed disavowed the ad, but Stevens said she believed he hadn't done enough to address her concerns and didn't want her help on the campaign trail. The dispute came to a head when she was told she was no longer welcome at El-Sayed's campaign events. Stevens announced her endorsement of Rogers after appearing with him at a church service on Sunday. Stevens could not be reached for comment Tuesday. The big picture: The political environment in Michigan has been volatile this weekend. On Monday, the New York Post reported a former El-Sayed staffer was one of several anti-Zionist activists federally indicted for allegedly terrorizing members of Michigan's Jewish community. On Sunday, a conservative Jewish activist was attacked by a progressive activist at a University of Michigan event where organizers were criticizing Islam. On
US voters vote today in the midterm elections, which will decide whether Republicans retain control of the House and Senate. A Democratic victory in either chamber would significantly constrain Trump’s ability to advance his domestic agenda. Even if Republicans retain one or both chambers, a reduced majority could make passing legislation more difficult, and could pave the way for Democrats to launch investigations into the administration. US midterm elections 2026 live: Americans go to the polls to decide control of Congress What are the races to watch in the US midterm elections and why do they matter? Continue reading...
Voting is underway across the country Tuesday in a midterm election that could decide whether President Trump gets two more years of unified Republican rule — or faces a potential Democratic check on his power. Why it matters: The results will be the clearest national test of Trump's second presidency , following war abroad, economic anxiety at home and sweeping changes in Washington. Trump, facing all these challenges, has made himself the face of the Republican campaign for control. State of play: As voters head to the polls, the Trump administration is zeroing-in on the Alaska Senate race. The Department of Justice has sent more than a dozen target letters as part of its investigation into the Dan J. Sullivan campaign, which has been the subject of Trump's ire for several days. It's an escalation into the Trump administration's push for answers in the race where Democrats reportedly conducted an organized effort to recruit another "Dan Sullivan" to join Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) on the ballot. The Justice Department's move comes as the White House is circulating Election Day talking points across the administration, touting Trump's accomplishments as the GOP braces for a tough evening that could see them lose both the House and the Senate, according to some forecasters. Trump has been a massive force on the campaign trail, rallying in several states for his Republican picks. The president has claimed to voters that he is on the ballot this year, making the election about his policies and actions — despite his dismal polling ratings, plagued by the Iran war and economic anxiety. Trump spent the morning of Election Day criticizing Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.) and the Daily Mail in various social media posts. Zoom in: Voting machine glitches and hiccups popped up in various spots of the country Tuesday, including in the high-profile New York House race between Rep. Mike Lawler (R) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley. Otherwi
It will take decades to rebuild trust in a country that removed a tyrant once – and then reinstated him four years later When Joe Biden entered the White House in 2021 it was possible to believe that Donald Trump’s reign had been an aberration. “America is back. The transatlantic alliance is back,” the new president declared to relieved European leaders shortly after winning the 2020 race. It was true, but not for long. Trump’s defeat proved that US democracy was mechanically operational, not culturally robust. His supporters tried violent subversion to prevent the inauguration of a successor. A second term should have been unthinkable. Republicans who failed to denounce the 6 January insurrection should have been unelectable. Instead, within four years, US voters reinstated the champion of a failed coup against their cherished constitution as commander-in-chief. Rafael Behr is a Guardian columnist Continue reading...
State officials have largely taken securing the 2026 midterm elections into their own hands after nearly two years of federal program and funding cuts during the second Trump administration. Why it matters: The reduction in federal support has come as AI tools threaten to make it easier for hackers to uncover software vulnerabilities, launch cyberattacks, and spread disinformation that undermines trust in election results. Reality check: Just because a security flaw exists doesn't mean hackers can exploit it to manipulate election results. Nearly all U.S. elections maintain paper records that can be used to verify electronic tallies. Threat level: Election officials are preparing for everything from cyberattacks and AI-generated disinformation to physical threats, logistical disruptions and legal challenges. The big picture: State election officials relied on homeland security agencies, fusion centers, police, National Guard units and private cybersecurity firms to prepare for the midterms, John Milhofer, a spokesperson for the National Association of Secretaries of State, told Axios. That group and the National Association of State Election Directors are helping states exchange threat intelligence and connect with federal agencies and private sector experts. Catch up quick: State resources have become more important after the Trump administration scaled back federal election security assistance. CISA cut election security personnel and services in 2025, while federal funding for the Elections Infrastructure Information Sharing and Analysis Center, a key information-sharing network for election officials, ended that year. Election officials are receiving fewer election-specific threat briefings and less direct technical assistance, even after CISA outlined plans to restore some services in September. Zoom in: Michael Moore, chief information security officer for the Arizona secretary of state's office, told Axios that the state has been without a dedicated CISA cybe
These resource-guzzling centres drive up utility bills and are hated across the political spectrum. Cue a clunky, but potentially influential, new name for them Jesus may have turned water into wine, but Donald Trump has done one better: he turned Lake Ontario into Lake America and the Gulf of Mexico into the Gulf of America. And then, for his next trick, he insisted we all stop talking about artificial intelligence (AI) and call it superintelligence (SI) instead. Those, of course, are only a few of the name changes the president has ushered in. When he’s not golfing or commenting on senators’ buttocks , president Trump loves a rebranding project. Which makes sense: coming up with a new name is far easier than making meaningful improvements to people’s lives. Continue reading...
As Americans went to the polls for an election widely seen as a referendum on his second term, President Trump again downplayed concerns over the cost of living and addressed unpopular foreign policy matters.
The US has seen plenty of terrible speeches over the centuries. But Trump’s midterm rallies are a new low In a sense, history has already been made. We do not know the result of the election yet, but over the last two months, Americans have endured the worst speeches ever given by a president of the United States. It is far from a simple matter to adjudicate – there have been so many bad speeches over the years, going back the founders, some of whom dreaded speaking in public. George Washington’s inaugural address did not begin promisingly, with a halting first sentence: “Among the vicissitudes incident to life, no event could have filled me with greater anxieties than that of which the notification was transmitted by your order, and received on the 14th day of the present month.” Continue reading...
Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket officially don't care which side of a bet wins. There is no "house." They get their cut either way. It's a business model that's attracted billions of VC dollars. Yes, but: Kalshi and Polymarket should be pulling hard for Democrats in today's midterm elections. Even if that feels counterintuitive. Catch up quick: Prediction markets burst into the public consciousness two years ago, when their users correctly "picked" Donald Trump to beat Kamala Harris. It bestowed credibility at a time when public trust in traditional polling had cratered. Fast forward: More recently, however, they had electoral misses in Brazil and Israel. Three would be a trend. Both platforms currently have markets on Democrats sweeping Congress, with "yes" at around 75%. If that's how today plays out, it would further cement prediction market legitimacy. A Republican win in either chamber, however, would dump them into the same pot as pollsters — even if 75% probability includes a sizable improbability. Zoom in: Democrats are often more hostile to prediction markets than are Republicans, but companies like Kalshi and Polymarket don't have too much to fear from a Democrat-controlled Congress. Yes, there would probably be an uncomfortable hearing or two. But neither chamber would have veto-proof majorities, and the Trump administration has been very sympathetic to the industry. The real constraints, if any, are more likely to come via the Supreme Court. The bottom line: Political predictions generate much less revenue for Kalshi and Polymarket than do sports predictions, but they have a much longer tail.
Voting machines across New York's Westchester County are rejecting paper ballots on Election Day, raising concerns about potential delays in one of the nation's most competitive House races. Why it matters: Results could be delayed for one of the country's most prominent House races, between Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) and Democratic nominee Cait Conley, as officials address a problem with paper ballots. Driving the news: The Westchester County Board of Elections said Tuesday it was aware of a problem preventing voting machines from accepting paper ballots at polling locations throughout the county. The Board of Elections said it is speaking with New York State officials and the Westchester County government "to address this issue and ensure that voting continues with as little disruption as possible." The cause remains unclear. Election officials initially blamed the thickness of paper ballots but later removed that explanation from their statement, per reports. New York Attorney General Letitia James wrote on X that her office is monitoring the issue. What they're saying: Lawler said officials were working with vendors to resolve the problem, while Conley reassured voters that their ballots would count. Westchester County government wrote on its website: "Let us be absolutely clear: Every eligible vote will be counted." What we're hearing: Voters in the county told Fox 5 NY that they had to fill out paper ballots instead of using the machines. Voters said their ballots were placed in a security box. Other voters shared discontent with the ballots issue on social media . Katie Miller , wife of Trump adviser Stephen Miller, claimed on X: "This is how the Left steals elections. Mike Lawler's competitive district and they are turning away voters." Context: The county covers roughly 30% of New York's 17th District, which Lawler represents. The contest has emerged as a key battleground race in Democrats' push to gain control of the House. Zoom out: The ballot-scanning pro
Americans are voting in midterm elections with control of the House and the Senate at stake for the remainder of Donald Trump’s second term in office, while voters are also electing governors and other state and local officials Continue reading...
These graphics explain what the Democrats would need to do to flip the Senate and House of Representatives A turning point in Donald Trump’s second term has arrived. Voters across the US are deciding whether to keep the president’s Republican allies in control of Congress, or return Democrats to the majority. Many indicators of voter sentiment suggest the Democrats are favored to take back control of the House of Representatives, and potentially the Senate. Winning either would be a significant victory for the party and give it the power to block Trump’s legislative agenda and more aggressively investigate his administration. Continue reading...
The U.S. carried out limited strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island despite President Trump saying that strikes would not be carried out on Iran before the midterms. NBC News’ Raf Sanchez reports.
There's a lot at stake for energy in the midterms, from the fate of the bipartisan permitting deal to the growing backlash against data centers and electricity prices. Why it matters: The results could spotlight which energy topics resonate with voters — and which have become political liabilities. Gasoline and diesel prices have been big on the campaign trail, offering a chance to see how much voter frustration over energy costs matters at the ballot box. Data center politics: There are sharp differences between the parties, even though data centers aren't especially popular with either party's slate of candidates. Why it matters: The pace of the AI buildout affects power demand and emissions. State of play: 32.4% of Democratic candidates support moratoriums at the federal, state, or local level, compared to just 3.4% of Republicans, per Data Center Watch, which tracked hundreds of races. Zoom in: Meanwhile, Ballotpedia is tracking dozens of ballot measures on data centers, many of which would impose new restrictions. Ohio is a hot spot. Control and permitting: The outcome will affect the politics of the lame-duck session — and that means the politics of the bipartisan permitting deal. What they're saying: If Democrats take both chambers, "leaders might opt to wait until they hold the gavels next year to renegotiate compromises," the research firm ClearView Energy Partners said in a note. Yes, but: A reminder that backers of the current bill think it's folly to expect political space to write a more liberal bill that President Trump would sign, or that could even pass the Senate. Threat level: What if the results are very close? ClearView notes that if Trump and allies contest the results, "weeks of post-election skirmishing could complicate passage of any bill." Political lessons: The results could offer clues about where energy and climate policy are headed. State of play: Exit polling is not famously precise, but it could provide a barometer of how much voters t
The Justice Department said Tuesday it will deploy about 1,000 election monitors to all 50 states for the first time ever to watch the polls. Why it matters: The unprecedented effort comes after courts repeatedly rejected the DOJ's efforts to force states to restrict voting for alleged noncitizens. It comes amid a long-running Trump administration push to fight voter fraud , which studies say isn't nearly as prevalent as the administration suggests. Driving the news : The department, in a statement early Tuesday, said one of its most important goals was to protect election integrity. "Today, the DOJ will further this mission by engaging in its largest monitoring effort in history—with approximately 1,000 election monitors and observers deployed, and, for the first time, in all 50 states," the department said. The department said observers would come from the DOJ, U.S. Attorney's offices, and staff from the Office of Personnel Management. What they're saying: "I am very proud we are deploying the largest monitoring effort in DOJ history, and pursuing transparency for elections in an assertive and nondiscriminatory manner," assistant attorney general Harmeet K. Dhillon said in the statement. The intrigue: Some local election officials have already expressed concerns that such a massive wave of observers could intimidate or otherwise interfere with voters. What to watch: The DOJ is still pursuing legal efforts in multiple states to have ballots segregated or otherwise impact counting.
The US has been voting for senators, members of the House of Representatives and state governors in the midterm elections. Here are the results in full US midterm elections 2026 live: Americans go to the polls in referendum on Trump’s agenda The US legislature, Congress, has two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Continue reading...
Affordability and small businesses’ economic woes feature heavily in the House race for Wisconsin’s third district After 18 years in business, Erin Klaus is closing her storefront, a handmade artisan market in downtown Eau Claire, Wisconsin, at the end of the year. She opened Tangled Up in Hue amid a recession, during a time when downtown was “kind of a ghost town”, weathering construction and the pandemic. But the current economic crisis proved too much. She’s seen a downward trend in sales for two years, and was dipping into her own pocket from her other job, as the executive director of business non-profit Downtown Eau Claire Inc, to pay staff. Continue reading...
The president has spewed vulgar and hateful rhetoric even as he reveals his disdain for his followers Far from veering off his track, Trump in his ceaselessly vile midterm campaign statements has attained an optimal level of Trumpism. He has distilled the raw elements of misogyny, racism and nativism to the purified essence of his political philosophy. The Republican candidates and his vice-president have followed him down the trail of “defining deviancy down”, as explained by Daniel Patrick Moynihan, in his essay in The American Scholar in 1993, about lowering the bar to make abnormal criminal behavior seem normal, coping through denial of its obvious presence, and through that process trivializing “the manifest decline of American civic life”. Continue reading...
Voters are about to decide whether public backlash against the health care industry translates into meaningful policy shifts. Why it matters: Health care has never been more expensive, and it's not going to get any cheaper without significant intervention. The big picture: It's hard to see Democrats not making health care affordability a top priority in the next Congress, regardless of whether they win only a narrow majority in the House or sweep both chambers in a blowout. But the party isn't aligned on an agenda, and a strong showing by progressives could drag things leftward. Reality check: Any Democratic victory — no matter the size — will be tempered by the realities of split government, with President Trump still in office for the next two years. Larger Democratic majorities may bring greater leverage in negotiations over spending packages or raising the debt limit. And the boldest changes will probably be reserved for the campaign trail, as 2028 presidential contenders begin to vie for the party's nomination. Here's what we're watching: Medicare for All vs. moderates: What happens in Michigan's Senate race — and Maine's, to some extent — will almost certainly shape how much sway progressives have in the next two years. Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has made Medicare for All central to his campaign, unabashedly supporting the idea in a race that could determine which party has control of the Senate next year. The same is true of Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine's Senate race, though Jackson has a lower national profile than El-Sayed. But Medicare for All supporters looking for a vote on the measure face an uphill battle : Despite the policy's growing popularity among the public, moderates unwilling to abolish private insurance will make up a sizable portion of any Democratic majority. The doctors-turned-politicians: Doctors are on the ballot in key races this year, and the question is how much public trust translates into votes. El-Sayed, an epidemiologist who went to
Data: AdImpact; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Republicans on the ballot this cycle have all but stopped mentioning President Trump in their campaign ads , according to an Axios analysis of broadcast advertising data from AdImpact. Why it matters: Trump has tried to make the 2026 midterms a referendum on his presidency. His party has run the other way. The big picture: Ads from both parties in Senate, House and gubernatorial races have shifted from a heavy focus on Trump during the primaries to a much greater emphasis on the economy in the general election. Both parties have also leaned much more heavily into health care, with a noticeable increase among House Republicans. By the numbers: The drop-off is steepest among Republicans, and especially in House races. Trump appeared in 66% of House Republicans' primary ads but shows up in just 3% of their general election ads. In Senate races, Republican ads mentioning him fell from 77% to 22%. Governor's races saw the same shift: Republican ads mentioning Trump fell 34 percentage points. Democrats have also pulled back from Trump, though less dramatically. Trump appeared in 45% of Democratic primary ads, but just 18% of their general election ads. Zoom in: Republican candidates are mentioning some of Trump's signature issues less than during the primaries. The share of Republican ads mentioning immigration has dropped 20 percentage points in Senate races and 14 points in House races. Ads referencing law enforcement fell from 11% of Republican Senate primary ads to 6% in the general election, even as their mentions of crime increased. Data: AdImpact; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Between the lines: Candidates often lean on the country's most prominent political figure in primaries, then pivot to policy issues in the general election. But this year's drop-off stands out given how hard Trump has pushed to tie himself to the midterms. He has urged voters to pretend he's on the ballot and essentially demanded ads running during the Republ
Nate Cohn, our chief political analyst, explains how polling has fared in the Trump era and whether we should trust this year’s midterm polls that are favorable to Democrats.
Reports have suggested a vulnerable president could start a new bombing campaign. But that wouldn’t bring a deal any closer Will Donald Trump decide to resume a large-scale war against Iran after the US midterm elections? That question has loomed over the campaign for weeks, as officials leaked plans for a new round of joint US-Israeli military strikes that would target Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, missile arsenals and civilian infrastructure. Continue reading...
The 2026 US midterm elections feature firebrand progressives trying to stake out new territory, moderate Republicans struggling in the shadow of Donald Trump, and a host of scandals that have made races closer than they should be. These candidates could shape not only power in Washington, but public and political understanding of what works – and wins votes – in different places across the country. Can a Democrat win in red Kansas? Could Texas finally flip away from Republicans? Will abuse allegations or absenteeism tank incumbents? How important is capturing online attention? And how can Republicans run away from Trump, their party’s leader, and modern architect, as his popularity wanes? The lessons learned – and the candidates who teach them – will play into the 2028 presidential election and alter the makeup of Congress at a critical time for both parties Continue reading...
Everything you need to know about how winners are called, how states count ballots and Trump’s election denialism There’s no simple answer as to when US voters will know the results of the midterms. Elections are managed locally throughout the US, and it’s different in each state. Sometimes, if a race isn’t close, there’s a near-instantaneous sense of who won. In more contested races, it can take many hours, days or even weeks. Continue reading...
At least a dozen Ukrainian truck drivers were arrested this summer, according to a representative for Ukraine. Several remain in detention.
The 2026 midterms will offer the first test of voter sentiment on the AI race, offering a window into how a niche policy debate is transforming into a wedge issue ahead of a presidential campaign cycle. Why it matters: The results will reveal whether explicitly campaigning on AI regulation—or aligning with tech moguls like Elon Musk—is a winning political strategy or a liability for 2028. One thing is already clear: Candidates increasingly can't afford to have half-baked AI agendas. Here are three major questions about the future of AI politics and policy and the races we're watching on Election Day for answers. 1. Did AI break through? A different kind of AI political spending has emerged in the midterms. Instead of supporting or opposing candidates based on their AI positions, some groups want to make AI policy itself a campaign issue. Guardrails Alliance, a pro-regulation advocacy group, recently launched ads targeting Republicans and Democrats over their positions on AI in Arizona, Montana, North Carolina and California. The organization backed Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, who said AI was the most important issue heading into Election Day, tying it explicitly to jobs and affordability. Democratic group Tomorrow Together also launched ads against Republicans' AI track record in Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, competing AI groups Public First and Leading the Future spent more than $50 million through affiliated super PACs in nearly 50 races, but their TV and digital ads largely avoided the very issue they're trying to influence: AI. These races could offer an early test of whether explicitly campaigning on AI is a viable political strategy heading into 2028. 2. Did Elon Musk help or hurt candidates? Elon Musk's political spending, involvement in DOGE and ties to the Trump administration have made him both a powerful political backer and a target for Democratic attacks. He was the biggest donor in the midterms by far, contribu
Democrats are poised to romp in today's election — easily winning the House and, according to most forecasts, flipping the Senate too. Yet the party itself is less popular than the IRS . Even the GOP has a better brand. Why it matters: There's a difference between a blowout and a mandate. Confusing the two could tempt Democrats to overread the results and forget the serious credibility problem they still face heading into 2028. The big picture: Democrats have done a lot of things right to position themselves for a big night. They recruited candidates who've put red state Senate races that seemingly were beyond reach, within their grasp. Many of those candidates vastly outraised their Republican opponents. But polls across the board still show a lesser-of-two-evils election — or as one Republican tied to President Trump's political operation described it, a contest of which party voters hate more. Voters are more eager to disempower Trump than to empower Democrats. By the numbers: Just 29% of registered voters have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party vs. 38% who view the Republican Party positively, according to a pre-election NBC News poll . The same poll showed Democrats with a 7-point lead in the congressional generic ballot, 52 to 45. And nearly 6 in 10 voters who plan to back Democrats in the election said their vote is about stopping Trump and Republican policies — vs. 4 in 10 who said they were more motivated to help Democrats enact their policies, per an October CBS News/YouGov poll . Zoom in: Many Democrats say they're determined not to repeat the mistake they made after the last midterms in 2022. They defied predictions of a red wave and saw it as an endorsement of Joe Biden and their party — when voters actually were increasingly angry. The post-2022 takeaway ultimately laid the groundwork for Trump's return to the White House after the 2024 election. Democrats won the House in the 2018 midterms — and went on to impeach Trump the following year. Thi
As results roll in Wednesday Australian time, keen election-watchers can tune in to see whether red seats flip blue – or if we’re in for a long week of vote counting Get our breaking news email , free app or daily news podcast Donald Trump has called it “most important in our lifetime” while senator Bernie Sanders says it’s the most important “in modern American history”. Barack Obama called it a “circuit-breaker” and the “last, best chance” to rein in the president. In any case, all eyes will be on the United States on Wednesday Australian time for the 2026 midterm elections. Will Americans use the day as a referendum on Donald Trump’s second term? Will Democrats see a clean sweep of Congress? Continue reading...
Republicans don't know if they'll lose big or small on Tuesday, but they're already bracing for an epic blame game. Why it matters: Privately, Republicans acknowledge it's not a complicated version of Clue. The leading suspect: Mr. President, in the Oval Office, with an assortment of weapons — and one war. Returning Republican senators are unlikely to blame President Trump publicly. There's a price for that. And don't expect Trump to shoulder the responsibility. But do expect departing GOP lawmakers to take shots at Trump or his team, and Trump to fire back at Senate Republicans, whom he's never been shy about torching. The irony of Trump's second midterm: With Republicans privately resigned to losing the House, Trump can still credibly claim victory if they hold the Senate. "It's Donald Trump's midterms. He gets all the credit if we win. He gets all the credit if we lose," one national GOP strategist told Axios. The Iran war: From Alaska to Maine, Trump's decision to go to war with Iran — and the resulting spike in gas and diesel prices — has become a major political liability for Republican Senate nominees. "It's not tariffs … it's the war, it's gas prices, it's diesel," Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said at a closed-door fundraiser in September, Axios reported last month . Tariffs: Trump's trade policies have compounded Republicans' affordability problems, particularly in farm country, where producers have faced higher costs and uncertainty over export markets. "We need to end this tariff war now," former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) , the GOP Senate nominee, said in an October campaign ad, breaking with Trump over his tariffs on Canada. Bad candidates: Trump's preferred nominees are also drawing blame, GOP strategists tell Axios. Paxton in Texas and Sen. Darline Graham in South Carolina have forced Republicans to spend heavily defending races that should have been easier — and where the party had other options. Complacent incumbents: Sens. Roger Marshall (R-Ka
A judge has complicated President Donald Trump’s efforts to plow forward on construction of a memorial arch, setting multiple notification deadlines before any work can begin
Mario Alberto Morales was released on bond following his indictment on a charge of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon.
The U.S., Russia and Ukraine will hold peace talks in Abu Dhabi on Nov. 10-11 in an effort to reach a breakthrough on a deal for ending the war. Why it matters: U.S. officials say the meeting to restart a diplomatic effort suspended in February due to the war in Iran is a result of talks Presidnt Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks. The White House hopes Putin will be more willing to compromise after Trump agreed to lift sanctions on Russian diesel sales and took other steps welcomed by Moscow. So far, Putin's only apparent concession is agreeing to resume talks. The parties remain far apart, particularly over territory. Russia's escalating attacks on Ukrainian cities and Putin's refusal to agree to a ceasefire casts doubt on prospects for progress. Zelensky said on Monday Ukraine has intelligence that Russia is preparing another massive attack against its energy and logistics facilities on Tuesday "when the world will be watching the American midterms". Driving the news: Kushner and Witkoff will lead to U.S. delegation for the talks in Abu Dhabi. "Discussions will focus on post-war security arrangements, de-escalation, humanitarian efforts, and next steps toward peace," Witkoff said in a statement. Witkoff added that lower-level U.S. officials will meet this week in Brussels with representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the EU, and NATO to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine, Europe's post-war security architecture, and economic opportunities to support Ukraine's reconstruction. "We look forward to building on the progress made in Kyiv, Oslo, and St. Petersburg toward a comprehensive, durable peace agreement that delivers lasting security for generations to come," Witkoff said.
The threat of a blue tsunami is bearing down on President Trump's Washington, with virtually every major indicator forecasting a Democratic rout in Tuesday's elections. Why it matters: Expectations for the midterms have soared so high that some Democrats fear disappointment is inevitable, particularly if the party falls short of winning the Senate — a prize that seemed beyond reach just months ago. By the numbers: Five key metrics help distill the extraordinary consensus taking shape on the eve of the midterms. 🔮 95% and 80%: The probability of Democrats winning the House and Senate, respectively, according to election forecaster Nate Silver , whose model projects an average gain of 25 House seats. Silver says Democrats could now withstand a modest polling error and still capture the Senate — a remarkable cushion given the GOP's history of outperforming polls in the Trump era. 🗺️ 7 for 7: Democrats lead in every Senate battleground state surveyed in the final New York Times/Siena polls , including by 11 points in Michigan and seven in Texas. Trump carried six of those seven states in 2024, though five of the Democratic leads — Maine (+6), Kansas (+5), Ohio (+5), Alaska (+2) and Iowa (+1) — remain within the polls' margins of error. 🏛️ 240: The number of House seats Democrats could win under the upper end of Cook Political Report's forecast — potentially their largest majority since the first year of Barack Obama's presidency. Reaching that mark would require Democrats to sweep all 18 toss-up races. Cook already favors them in 222 districts, four more than needed for a majority. 🎲 73%: The probability of Democrats winning both chambers of Congress, according to Kalshi . After correctly favoring Trump in 2024, prediction markets have become a closely watched barometer of political expectations. Nearly $100 million in contracts have traded on Kalshi's congressional control market alone. 📊 +14: Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot in the final poll f
The Supreme Court denied the Trump administration's request Monday to hear its case regarding more than 20,000 California ballots that President Trump claims were cast by noncitizens . Why it matters: It's a blow to the administration, which has been tussling with the state in what it says is a fight to ensure all eligible voters can vote and have their ballots counted, as the law requires. What they're saying: " The application for injunction pending appeal presented to Justice Kagan and by her referred to the Court is denied, " an unsigned order from the court read . Catch up quick: The Trump administration sued California in mid-October, arguing that it had identified more than 20,000 noncitizens on the state's voter rolls. Judges have consistently rejected the administration's argument, finding that its lists contain factual errors and risk disenfranchising eligible voters. One judge even noted that when the administration claimed it had specifically verified more than 100 people as noncitizens in Nevada, the state proved they were, in fact, citizens. Zoom out: The court has often sided with Trump, but has notably broken with him on cases involving voting access. The president has no constitutional authority over elections. That power largely rests with the states and Congress. Go deeper: Trump administration turns to SCOTUS in California ballot case
A federal judge on the eve of Election Day barred the Trump administration from demanding California officials set aside ballots from registered voters it suspects are noncitizens, finding the effort likely violates the Constitution. Why it matters: Courts had already rejected the Justice Department's attempts to force California to separate the ballots. Monday's ruling goes a step further, directly barring federal officials from making those demands even as DOJ turns to the Supreme Court to compel the state to comply. Driving the news: Chief U.S. District Judge James Boasberg ruled Monday that the Trump administration likely violated the Constitution by pressuring California officials to change how they count ballots. His order prohibits the Justice Department and the Department of Homeland Security from demanding officials set aside ballots or depart from existing state election procedures based on federal lists of suspected noncitizens. Boasberg found that the Constitution gives states and Congress, but not the executive branch, authority over election rules. The federal ban on noncitizen voting does not mean the administration can rewrite those rules. By the numbers: The DOJ claims it identified more than 20,000 suspected noncitizens on California's voter rolls. After Boasberg ordered DOJ to turn over its list, an expert found that at least 22 members of the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights — all known U.S. citizens — were wrongly included. The expert found another 66 members were almost certainly on the list. Boasberg found the expert credible and concluded the list's errors posed a real threat to eligible voters. What he's saying: "The President evidently believes that it would be good public policy for more stringent procedures to be put in place," Boasberg wrote. "No matter how strong that policy case may be, however, it does not justify overstepping the bounds of the Executive Branch's limited constitutional authority in this domain." The White House r
Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign reportedly recruited a second Dan Sullivan in the race in what Republicans call a ploy to split votes Republican officials have called for an investigation into an alleged ballot-stacking scheme in Alaska’s competitive Senate race by Democrat Mary Peltola’s campaign. For months, Donald Trump and others accused Peltola and Democrats of recruiting candidates with the same name as her Republican opponent, Dan Sullivan, to purposefully confuse voters when they cast their ballots in November’s midterms. Continue reading...
President Trump extolled his administration's Reflecting Pool project , dug up debunked claims of vandalism and applauded the new White House helipad in a Monday pre-Election Day speech. The big picture: Trump's deep focus on remaking the nation's capital has taken center stage as the clock ticks down to midterm elections. Driving the news: "The pool is now better and more beautiful than it's ever been before, and we're very proud of it," Trump said in Monday's speech, adding, "We went through a lot with vandalism." But Trump's own Justice Department dropped vandalism charges against former Olympian David Hearn , whose case was later killed by a judge after prosecutors acknowledged that faulty installation caused the damage to the Pool. Trump added the administration was "giving serious thought" to renaming the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool to the "Trump Reflecting Pool," before later saying he was kidding. Throughout the speech, he held up printed images he identified as pipes, joints and other Pool materials. He also showed an image that appeared to show "8647" sprayed onto the base of the emptied pool, claiming "that was a Comey phrase" — a reference to his former FBI director and top foe. Zoom out: He also discussed his White House renovation projects, including the recently installed helipad and Scotts Miracle-Gro's lawn restoration after the UFC fight on White House grounds. Friction point: Trump's projects, including his D.C.-area arch and White House ballroom, have been broadly panned by Americans in polling. "This project should be a project that unites all Americans," Trump said Monday of the newly reopened Reflecting Pool, which stood empty for an extended period earlier this year. Zoom in: His pre-election pitch at times sounded more like a typical rally speech, where he touted his immigration policies and war with Iran while slamming Democrats as "a party that hates America." This is the last day before the midterm elections, the most important midte
US president shares delayed results of chaotic renovation on DC site as Americans prepare to head to the polls Donald Trump unveiled the delayed results of his $14m renovation of Washington DC’s Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool in what is expected to be his final press conference before voters head to the polls for the midterm elections. On the eve of a consequential election day, with polls indicating that most voters feel the US president has grown too focused on building projects in the nation’s capital, he stood in front of the newly opened reflecting pool to discuss – in detail – changes to the pool’s pipe, the grass surrounding the area and granite. Continue reading...
Trump administration officials had sought admissions data from Harvard, including student application essays, to see if the school was complying with a court decision banning affirmative action.
President Trump told Axios in a phone interview Monday he's "in no rush" to decide whether to resume fighting in Iran. Why it matters: The midterm elections have been seen as an inflection point for Trump on whether to unleash a massive bombing campaign to try to bring the war to an end. But it appears the president, at least for now, will continue pursuing dual tracks — letting negotiations play out while preparing to go back to war if he concludes a deal isn't possible. What he is saying: "One way or the other, we will do something, but there is no rush. We crippled them financially. They have no money, no gasoline and their people are getting very tired of it," Trump said in the interview. Driving the news: Qatari mediators have written a draft agreement outlining a three-day sequence of confidence-building measures aimed at resuming direct U.S.-Iran negotiations, according to regional sources. A diplomat with knowledge of the situation said the Qatari mediators are waiting for feedback from the U.S. and Iran. Trump is giving diplomacy a chance but is clear-eyed about the chances of reaching a deal. "We are talking to them. It's going fine. The problem with them is ... they try and tap tap tap [us along]. There's less urgency [on the Iranian side] than you think there would be, but they want to make deal more than they ever wanted," Trump said. Between the lines: Trump is weighing three courses of action, backed by three different camps: Make a deal: Vice President Vance and White House envoy Steve Witkoff are urging him to move toward a deal because a renewed war might not change the situation for the better. Most Gulf countries support this position and have communicated that to Trump, sources say. Go back to battle: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants to resume combat, as does Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. They argue that Iran can't be trusted to make a deal let alone abide by one, and that Trump should finish the job militarily. Maximum econo
The world seems convinced the end is near — and social media is amplifying that belief, convincing people to stock up on food, water, generators and other items. Why it matters: Online chatter is fueling viral predictions of societal collapse amid growing unease about the future. But you're probably not going to die tomorrow. What they're saying: Michael Mills, a researcher at the University of Kent who has studied doomsday prepping for more than a decade, told Axios that modern doomsday fears aren't necessarily about a specific apocalyptic scenario. "It's an overall reaction to uncertainty in most cases," Mills said. He noted that whereas Cold War-era survivalists were often focused on nuclear conflict, modern preppers worry about terrorism, climate disasters, geopolitical threats and emerging technologies. He described the modern mindset as a "multifaceted concern with uncertainty." State of play: Viral posts have repeatedly urged people around the world to stock up on food and water, following similar recommendations from various governments and warnings from former FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino. The situation has gotten so buzzy that President Trump was asked about it in an interview Monday. He said Americans don't need to stock up because the U.S. is "in good shape. We're strong. We have a great military and we will not have those kind of problems." Separately, conservative commentator Tucker Carlson — a man with 17.9 million followers on X alone — published a lengthy post Sunday evening alleging that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressuring Trump to launch renewed attacks on Iran after the midterms, potentially with a nuclear weapon. For what it's worth, Carlson has been predicting similar doomsday scenarios for a while, and he's been wrong before. And the Pentagon's newly reported plan calls for U.S. military bases to prepare to operate without outside support for at least 90 days, terrifying some people into asking , "What's the government k
Bill Murray crashed a live CNBC interview with Kevin Hassett, one of President Donald Trump’s top economic advisers, asking him to say, “My dog just died.”
The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to mandate that California separate ballots of more than 20,000 voters the government suspects are "likely" non-citizens. The big picture: A federal appeals court rejected the administration's bid to set aside mail ballots last week, erecting another roadblock in the DOJ's pre-election quest to demand the state root out claims of voter fraud in the final days of the midterm elections. This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
Residents would welcome the development, but the president’s past false promises cast doubt on the proposal On a Monday afternoon in late September, Donald Trump gathered Iowa Republicans in the Oval Office to make a big announcement: the firm Mesabi Metallics would invest $15bn to make the midwestern state the site of the largest steel mill in the country. One month later, and just days before the midterm election, word has spread in the small town of Wever, population 142, that the mill will be built somewhere nearby. And that’s been about it – no shovels in the dirt, workers on a job site or machinery on the dirt roads leading down towards the Mississippi River. Continue reading...
In an emergency application, administration lawyers asked the justices to immediately order California to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots.
Former US representative, health secretary and state attorney general is a shoo-in after a stunning comeback victory in primary It was Tuesday, and the man poised to be the next governor of California wanted to talk about Donald Trump . Xavier Becerra had come to Guelaguetza restaurant in Los Angeles to talk about Trump’s attacks on voting in the state, but instead found himself answering questions about a presidential provocation of a different order. Continue reading...
Republican John Sununu tries to distance himself from unpopular president in race against Chris Pappas that has gone from ‘toss-up to ‘lean Democrat’ Chris Pappas is stopping himself from getting too excited ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election. “I take nothing for granted,” said the four-term US representative and Democratic nominee for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat. “This is a very purple, competitive state. Elections are never in the bag here.” Continue reading...
Watch live coverage as President Trump delivers his administration's closing message on the midterm elections from the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.